WDC-WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION-This stock has been performing terribly.  Down 57.5% on the year.  Currently selling at 42.73.  All sorts of rumors going around about patents they bought from IBM and on their buyout of sandisk.  P/E is now 7.96.  Cap is now at 10.37.  Short interest is now at 5.07%.  Dividend is at 2, so 15 with tax and ten.  PEG ratio is high indicating poor future growth prospects.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 40.42.  Average p/e is at 11.95.  Earnings are expected to be great this year but only up 2% over the next 3-5 year over year.  Book is growing at 14.38.  Return on equity is at 14.38.  Debt is at 23.65.  Looks like they have an earnings call on 1/28/16.  Their earnings are pretty good but imperfect.  Earnings have compounded at 12.45%.  Dividends are pretty steady.  Insider ownership is at 6.2.  We’ll say EPS is 5.36 and thus the dividend is about 40% of EPS.  Book grows at an amazing rate we’re talking about 22.71%.  The average and mean return on equity is gonna be high, but we can use the current rate…conservatively.  So if we use their compounded book growth rate, we could see book value of 149.85, and thus EPS of 20.979 and thus a price of 166.99 using the current p/e and 250.699 plus 15 in dividends for a value of between 20.05 on the high end and 15.59 on the low end.  Let’s say we look at their earnings of 5.36 and continue the compounding at 12.45, we could see EPS of 17.33, and with p/e of 7.96 v. 11.95, we could see share prices of 137.95 v. 207.09 plus the 15 in dividends for respective values of 152.95 v. 222.09 and thus rates of return between 13.6 and 17.92.  Let’s look at it as if return on equity is at 14.38 (which is very low) and they keep 60% to grow the business, we could see a book growth figure of 8.628 and thus book value of 92.49, and thus EPS of 12.948 and thus using our p/e figures a price of 103.07 or 154.728 plus the 15 for values of 118.07 and 169.728 and thus rate of return of 10.70 on the conservative low v.  14.79 on the higher side.  The company looks quantitatively good using these factors, so now we must take the analysis further.  Memory is a commodity.  It’s replaceable.  This industry can be easily disrupted.  It’s also vulnerable due to the decline of the PC.  Ultimately, I’d be speculating on their price going up short term, and long term, there’s no reason to guarantee they are going to steadily grow.

WM-WASTE MANAGEMENT INC-Selling at 52.56.  EPS is at 2.33.  Cap is 23.7b.  Dividend is at 1.54.  P/E is at 22.73.  Return on equity is 20.19.  Hard to do my analysis without Fidelity having the stock.  Return on equity is usually good, we can average 15.  Book value is kinda steady.  I’ll give em a 2% growth…I can tell this company isn’t a contender.

CBZ-CBIZ INC-Selling at 9.745.  Near their 52 week low of 8.21, but up 17% on the year.  No dividend.  Cap is 517.14.  Short interest is at 3.02.  P/E is at 14.98.  Book is at 8.54.  Average p/e is at 14.  Revenue grew last year, and EPS is supposed to grow 11.76 in the coming year.  Book growing at 8.12%.  Return on equity is at 8.03.  Debt to equity is at 49.63.  Median return on equity is at 11.  Good compounding on book value, we’ll use the 8.54 figure.  So let’s say we have book of 18.64 in 10, we could see EPS of say 2.05 conservatively speaking. and with a p/e average of 14, we could see a price of 28.705.  Not a bad rate of return.  If they came down to 7 I’d buy after doing a little scuttlebutt.

DST-DST SYSTEMS INC-Price is at 106.38.  Trading above their 93.06 52 week low.  Cap is at 3.68b.  Short interest is at .99%.  P/E is at 7.33.  PEG ratio is at .67.  Dividend is at 1.2.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 30.43.  Enterprise value is at 4.29.  EPS this year is at 12.05.  EPS in 3-5 is at 11.  Book growth is at 14.28.  Return on equity is at 46.5.  Debt 35.79.  Compounded growth rate is at 7.72.  These guys are a software development firm that specializes in information processing and management.  These guys provide backdoor streamlining of asset management, brokerage, healthcare, insurance, retirement, etc.  Seems kinda commodityish.  Let’s get crazy and say book continues to grow at 14%.  With a return on equity of of 26, which is lower than they have ever posted with one exception, we’d see book of 115.61 and thus EPS of 30, and thus a share price of aprox 240 using a p/e of 8.  We might also see dividends of 9ish after tax.  These guys are good stock with a commodity type business.  I wouldn’t be safe unless I saw a price of like 70 or 65.

PAG-PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC-Sells at 33.41.  Return on equity is at 19.64.  Typically it’s ok more than 15 11-14.  I could call it a 14.  Just bought a 49% stake in a Japanese luxury dealership.  Cap is at 3.01b.  Book value is at 19.72.  EPS  growth this year is at 9.97.  10.75 in next 3-5.  Book growth is at 11.89.  Debt is a reasonable 69.99.  Their earnings figures are awesome except for a bad period after the recession.  Earnings compound at 11.53.  Dividend is at 1.  So we could see 7.25 after 10 and tax.  We could also see abook value of say 61.25 and thus an eps of 8.575 and thus a price of 77 based on a p/e of 9, but a price of 116.88 if we use a 13.63 as p/e plus the 7.25 dividend.  On the low end, we’re looking at 85 and on the high end we’re looking at 123.  So, if they came down to 30, I’d think about pulling the trigger.  If they came down to 25, I’d buy.

MLHR-HERMAN MILLER INC-These guys manufacture office furniture, equipment and home furniture.  Analysts are very bullish.  Trading near the 52 week low.  Cap is at 1.52b.  Short interest is at 2.45.  Dividend is at .58, so 4 with 10 and tax.  P/E is at 13.56.  Bok is at 7.92.  Average p/e is at 22.7.  EPS growth this year is at 10.19.  No projection for 3-5 out.  Return on equity is at 25.35.  Debt is at 64.15.  Their earnings were crushed during the recession.  Pretty spotty earnings overall.  I don’t know.  I’m sensing this is an upscalish office furniture store.  My investment requirements won’t be met by this company.

AMTD-TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORPORATION-Price is 29.04. P/E is 19.36.  Cap is 15.58.  Short interest is 1.17.  Dividned is at about .68, for a total of say 5.4 with tax and 10 and growth.  Analysts are positive neutral.  P/E average is at like 20.32.  Book is 9.26.  Growth is at 22.7 this year,  and 15.14 next 3-5.  Book growth at 5.39. Return on equity is at 25?  Debt to equity is at 36.  These guys face headwinds from cheap alternatives like robinhood.  But I don’t see serious investors really making that switch.  Trades cost 10, robinhood free.  But robinhood doesn’t have the research or stability.  These guys make money on trades and on their margin lending.  If we’re only trading every once in a while 10$ isn’t so bad.  We could see book of 15.65, and EPS of 3.91 and thus a share price of say 74.33 plus that dividend of 5.4, for a price of about 80.  Not a bad return. If they came down to 25, I’d be ok.  I’d buy below 20.

AYI-ACUITY BRANDS INC-Price is at about 199.57. Cap is at 8.74b.  Short interest is at 4%.  P/E is at 36.35.  Dividend is at .52 or 4 with tax and ten.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 32.98.  Averag pe is maybe 27 or 29.  Earnings, revenue, capital spending all are awesome.  EPS is at 21.8 growht.  EPS long term is at 19.5 growth.  Book growht at 14% last 5.  Return on equity is at 17.86.  Long term debt is at 26%.  earnings growth over past 10 look good.  These guy do light and led stuff.  We could go with a conservative 14.5 for return on equity.  We’ll go with a 10% growth figure, which gives us a 85.54 book, and an EPS of 12.4 and with a p/e of 27, we could see a share price of 334.88 plus that 4 in dividends.  Total value of say 340. I think they are overpriced.  If they came down to 100 we’d be in business.

WBA-WALGREEN BOOTS ALLIANCE INC-Sells at 80.84.  They are up from 73, the 52 week low.  Cap is 87.21b.  Short interest is 1.39.  P/E is at 17.38.  Dividend is at 1.44, tand10, 10368.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is 28.29. EPS next year, 11.63.  Next 3-5 is 14%.  Book growth last 5 is at 16.47.  Return on equity is at 14.46.   Debt to equity is at 49.19.  Earnings have their ups and downs but are clockworkish.  Compounded growth of earnings at 8.61.  Not bad. Return on equity is always at about 14…some highs some lows.  Second largest drug store.  Decided not to relocate after acquiring boots alliance, which would’ve saved them seriously in taxes.  Looks like they suspended share buybacks in order to buyout rite aid.  They have historically good performance through recessions.  I think a fair rate of book growth would be 10 given that’s the compounded growth they’ve had for the past 10.  Thus we could see book of 73.38 and with a return on equity of 14, we’d see EPS of 10.27, and with a p/e of 17 we could see a price of 174.644 plus 10.368…Hmm.  They’d have to come below 50 to give me my return, plus I could see their profits hurt by more ePharma sites and associated deliveries.

BAM-BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC-Sells at 28.88, near their 52 week low, down 16.71 on the year.  Dividend is at .48.  P/E is at 10.83.  Cap is at 28.53.  Short interest is at .44%.  Analysts are low neutral.  Book is at 24.92, p/e is at 1.34.  Historical p/e average is at 11.48.  Enterprise value is at 91.82b?  EPS this coming year is at -30.23.  EPS growth next 3-5 is unknown.  Book growth is at 25.77.  Return on equity is at 12.66.  Debt is at 246%…geez.  I don’t like the look of this company.  I think the debt makes it hard to invest.  Dividend with tax and 10 is about $3.6.  Question, how are they getting such a low return on equity with all that debt?  I won’t buy these guys.  I’ll put a price alert out for 20, and we’ll reassess at that point.

DEO-DIAGEO PLC-Sells at 106.51.  Their at a -8.81 performance on the year, trading near their 52 week low.  Cap is 67b.  Short interest is at .06.  P/E is non existent.  Dividend yield is at 4.26.  Analysts are VERY bearish. Book is at 19.51.  EPS this year is a ?.  EPS next 3-5 is at 4.5% growth.  Book is growing at 15.33.  Return on equity is a ?  Return on equity is actually not bad we’ll say 30% conservatively.  Book really has been growing nicely, but we’ll call it a 5.15% rate.  Debt is at like 1.2.  These guys make Guiness, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Johnnie Walker and Bailey’s.  People are concerned with problems with growth of these brands and with the strong dollar hurting their bottom line, because a majority of their revenue comes from the US.  These guys pay a huge dividend, but theres not gonna be a lot of growth.  I do see these brands as a problem. I’ll reassess if they come below 100.

MAR-MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC-Selling at 62.46.  Down 20% on the year.  P/E is at 20.41.  Short interest is at 10.29.  Cap is at 16.06b. Dividend is at 1, we’ll call that 7.5 with tax and 10. Favorable PEG.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is negative 13.  Growth this year is at 19.55.  Next 3-5 at 22.7. Book growth is negative.  Return on equtiy is at -23. Debt to equity is at-124.  The story on this corp is debt. Why do they have so much damn debt.  Not a contender for me.  I’ll set an alert if they go down to 50.

UNH-UNITEDHEALTH GROUP-Sells at 114.33.  Up from 52 week low of 95. Dividend is at 2, we’ll call that 1.5 with tax and 10.  P/E is at 19.02.  Short interest is at 1.  Cap is at 108.97b. Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 35.39.  P/E average is at 13.95.  Earnings growth this year is unknown.  Next 3-5 is at like 13.63.  Book is at like 6.57 growth.  Revenue is growing.  Return on equity is at like 17.65.  Debt to equity is at 62.  Earnings are good, but spottyish.  I don’t know about getting involved in a company that is so subject to political pressure and governmental oversight and regulation.  We’ll use 5% book growth, giving us a book price of 73.38.  And with a return on equity, I’d feel comfortable using a figure of like 15.  And so, we could see EPS of 11, and thus a price of 154 plus that dividend of 10.  That’s a crap growth rate.  All of this guy Gaynor’s stocks kinda suck.  Buffett is the man.

GT-GOODYEAR TIRE AND RUBBER COMPANY-Sells at 28.49.  Up 9.83% on the year.  Dividend is at .28 for about $2.00 with tax and 10.  Cap is 7.66. Short interest is at 5.67.  P/E is a weird 2.8. Analysts are bullish.  Book is 15.41.  EPS growth this coming year is at 21.04, no projection for 3-5 out.  Book has grown at 37.48 over past 5.  REturn on equity is at 72.6.  Debt is at 151.58.  Kinda weird figures, but then we’re looking at tires.  Average p/e is at 13, we’ll say 10 to be safe.  They’ve been growing book very rapidly over the past 3 years, sorta spotty before that.  Historical return on equity is all over the place, but often very high…like in the 300s.  Median is 46.  Let’s go conservative with 25%.  This business is based hugely off of raw material prices…hugely influenced by oil. They have large pension obligations.  i just don’t think their growth figures are sustainable long term.  I think oil is gonna go up in the near term…next 2 years.  And that’s gonna cut their profitability by say 20%.  So we’ll say book grows at 10%.  That gives us a price of 40 and thus EPS of 10, and thus a price of 100…wow.  I see that this cyclical badboy may very well be undervalued…but they could easily face headwinds that will cut into earnings and dice the stock price.  I’ll consider them a buy if they go below 25.

SIG-SIGNET JEWELERS LTD-They own kay, zales, jared, piercing pagoda…they own the malls…and they own jewelry commercials.  Cap is at 9.75b.  P/E is at 23.16.  Dividend is at .88, for a total of say 6.6 after 10 and tax.  There is at 5.23 short interest.  No analyst consensus.  Book is at 35.79.  Average p/e is at 18.53.  EPS growth is at 18.68 this year and a similar figure next 3-5.  Book is at 9.35 growth last 5.  Return on equity is at 14.85.  Debt is at 47.35.  That’s a pretty nice company by the first look.  Let’s say book is at 84.73 in ten, we could see eps of 11.86 and thus a share price of 213.5 with a 18 p/e and including that dividend of 6.6 we could see a decent value of 220. We’ll they are selling at 122.54, so I can tell this isn’t gonna be a buy.  I think these middle of the road jewelers are overbought.  I’d pick em up if they came below 60, in the 55 range.

HD-HOME DEPOT INC-Sells at 122.76, they’re up 15% on the year.  Cap is 155.65.  Short interest is at 1.1%.  Dividend is 2.36, so with 10 and tax we’ll call that 16.  P/E is at 22.99.  Analysts are neutral. Book is a really low 6.01.  Average p/e is more like 20.36.  EPS growth next year v. this year is at 15.73.  Next 3-5 is at 14.39.  Book is shrinking?  at 13.63%?  Return on equity is at 79.55?  ebt is at 186%?  Historical return on equity would be a more reasonable 30…cuz a that debt.  They are really shrinking that book value…does that mean they’re shrinking inventory?  Or building?  Seeking alpha is irate over growth prospects.  There’s a funny article about decrease in fuel leading to consumer spending on things like depot.  I just don’t like the look and feel of this stock.  I’ll put an alert at 100, but I’ll reassess at that point.

LOW-LOWES COMPANIES INC-Sells at 70.50 up 1.37 on the year.  Analysts are very bullish.  Cap is at 64.51b.  Short interest is at .85%.  P/E is at 22.31.  Dividend is at 1.12, and we’ll say with tax and 10 we have a value of $8.  Book is at 9.14.  Book is shrinking here too.  EPS growth is at 17.  EPS next 3-5 is at 17.  Return on equity is at 32.7.  Debt is at 117.  It’s weird with these hardware retailers.  It’s like they decided we won’t use our own money anymore…all debt.  Leaving them seemingly susceptible to a decrease in consumer spending without more access to debt.  I don’t know about these guys.  They’re supposed to earn.  And i don’t see builders ordering stuff online when they could go to the store.  I just think wal mart and costco are better purchases than lowes and home depot.  Great points on seeking alpha about debt and equity.  I’ll set a price watch for 55.  We’ll see.  To be re analyzed at that point.

KMX-CARMAX GROUP-These guys are really trading near their 52 week lows at 45.85 today.  They pay no dividend.  P/E is at 15.36.  Cap is 8.97b.  There is a 12.49 short interest.  Analysts are low neutral. Growth is actually pretty awesome aside from a bad year in 2008.  Book is 14.74.  Enterprise value is a whopping 19.22.  Average p/e is 20.  EPS long term is 14.75%.  EPS this year is 11.92.  Book growth past 5 is 10.3.  Return on equity is at 19.93.  Debt is really high unfortunately at 301%.

OK might have to check out their stores.

Using a 10% growth figure, we could see book at 38.23 in 10.  And with a median return on equity of 16.3, we could see EPS of 6.23 and with a 20 p/e multiple, we could see a price of 124.  That would be a pretty conservative rate of 10.46…plus they have all that debt.  I’d look if they came down to 40, and I’d buy if they came down to 35.  We’ll see.

JNJ-JOHNSON AND JOHNSON-Selling for 96.75.  They are down 5.85% on the year.They pay a $3 dividend.  P/E is at 18.34.  Cap is at 267.7.  Short interest is at 1.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book is 25.86.  Average P/E is 18.18. EPS growth past 5 is at 5.31.  EPS this year is 3.56.  Next 3-5 is at 5.35.  Book growth is at 6.64.  Return on equity is at 21.  Debt to equity is at 20%.  With 10 and tax, their dividend comes to 26.26.  Let’s say they grow book at 6.64, book could come to 49.18, and thus we could easily see EPS of 10.327 for a price of 187.75 plus a dividend of 26.26.  That’s only a 8.26 return.  They would need to come down to the 55 range or lower.

HBI-HANESBRANDS INC-Trading at 29.25, up 5% on the year.  Short interest is at 3.29.  Cap is at 11.46b.  P/E is at 29.47.  Dividend is at .4 for the year, we’ll just call that $3 after 10 and tax.  Analysts are neutral.  Their earnings are VERY spotty.  Book is at 3.19, book growth last five years is at 32.88?  EPS this year is at 13.10%, and at 13 in the next 3-5. Return on equity is at 29.07.  Debt to equity is at 148.  Return on equity is always really high 29 is usable.  They’ve really been growing that book value after running into hard times in 2008.  Let’s call their book growth at 25%.  These are powerful multiples here.  Their weakness is their debt…there is just so much.  We could see a whopping 29.71 in book, and we could see EPS of 8.61, let’s take that down to 7.61 for debt, and with a reasonable 2o p/e we could see a price of 152 plus 3 in dividends.  That’s a great return.  This stock is a buy, even with that debt. Let’s keep an eye on them with a price of 28.

 

AXP-AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY-Today this stock was down 12.10%.  That’s awesome.  I bought 22 shares at a cost basis of 61.  I also bought 55 shares at 54.5.  The company is totally beleaguered.  One piece of bad news after another…but none of it is THAT bad.

Let’s review the stock from the price of 55.  What is our hypothetical, conservative 10 year rate of return.

Cap is now 54.19b.  Short interest is at 1.72%.  P/E is 12.45, trailing 12 months.  Dividend is at .29 or 1.16 per year.

Earnings are down this quarter due to some one time write downs.  We also have problems in the near term because of the Costco business losses.  We’ll call the dividend 10.04 after 10 and tax.

Book per share is 21.67.  Thus we have price to book of 2.538.  We have EPS of 4.377 trailing 12 months…low because of this quarter’s write downs.  earnings expectations of 5.5 in 2016 and 5.5-5.7 ish in 2017.  Book grows at 7.49.  EPS growth is at 7.48 over next 3-5.  Return on equity of course is always high, but we’ll call it 25.

Debt to equity is kinda unknown.  They have been seriously buying shares back.

Let’s go really conservative.  Let’s say we just take that 4.377 figure and run with it…we’re definitely looking up from here.  We’ll show 20% growth next year even with the costco losses because of that write down…next year is gonna look like a coup.  So, let’s be reasonable, in 10 years, we’ll have book of 44.62 (probably) and dividend earnings of 10.04, we could easily have earnings of 11.155, and Amex, using a reasonable P/E of 15, we’d have a price point of 167.325 plus that dividend of 10.04 f0r a price of 177.365.  That gives us a long term growth rate of 12.42…and we are using very conservative view here.  Ya, it’s not my 15%, and that 2.5% makes a huge difference to me.  But man-o-man, it’s gonna be a great investment.  There’s no reason for the company to go any lower, and if it does, it’s just speculation.

I’ll gauge this investment again in 2 years.

 

 

 

The market rout continues.  It’s awesome.  People are worried about oil, china, stocks are falling.  Are we facing a bear?  I dunno, prolly not, but my price triggers are going off all over the place.

The market is down 468 or 2.93%.

Some of my soft triggers went, but some great ones went off too.  I reset triggers where necessary.

I’ve added 35 shares of V at 69.2775.

50 shares of CSCO at 22.77.

10 shares of FDX at 27.3

26 shares of SYF at 27.23.

It’s a bloodbath in the market right now.

MU-MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC-Cap is 11.2b.  Short interest is 5.83.  P/E is 6. They are down 62% on the year.  Analysts are varied.  ook is at 11.93.  They are supposed to have a great year, future is sorta unknown.  Book grows at 8.93. Return on equity is at 16.99.  Debt is at 49.51.  Their earnings are going down in the dumps…but why.  In consistent earnings, selling below book.  Let’s say things stay flat.  Lot’s of speculation about this company.  I’d buy at 5.  Their stock will probably shoot up.  Price is at 10.8.  I’ll put in a 7.5 and a 10 price point here as well.

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LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A BIG DOWN DAY TODAY:

THRM-GENTHERM INC-They are nearing at 37.46.  P/E is 15.67.  Cap is 1.36b.  Short interest is at 3.87.  Analysts are bullish.  Earnings are upward and pretty good.  Book is 9.73.  P/E average is at 40.  EPS this year growth is 9.58.  Next 3-5 is 25.  Book growth is 43.57. Return on equity is at 27.32.  Debt to assets is at 26.94.  Been doing great lately, mean is 14 for r on e.  These guys are growing and they seem to make car seat heaters.   So lets say they keep a 15p/e and lets say we keep book growint at only 14.  We could see book of 36.07.  And with a 25 return that year.  We could see EPS of 9, and thus a price of 135.26.  I’d buy at 32-33.

PYPL-PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC-Sells at 32.2.  Not far above their 52 week low.  P/E is at 34.62. Cap is a lofty 39.34b.  Short interest is 2%.  Analysts are bearish.  Book is 10.82 per share.  EPS this year is 18% growth, and 17% moving forward.  Book grows at 2.22.  Return on equity is at 10.71.  No debt.  These guys prolly shouldn’t be judged based on return on equity.  Let’s say they’ll grow at 5 return on equity, and let’s say their multiple is 30.  Price of 17.82, and EPS of say 2.64, and thus we have a price of say 92.4.  I speculate this company will grow and blossom.  I think 22.5 or 22 is a reasonable entry point.

TZOO-TRAVELZOO INC-Price is at 7.3.  P/E is at 9.13.  Short interest is at 2.  Cap is only 107m.  Analysts are neutral. Book is 1.52.  EPS is supposed to be up 20%.  Book is growing at 5.  Return on equity is 32.47.  3.93in debt.  Earnings are unsteady.  This is a really nice company for travel deals.  I could see book at 2.48.  and thus EPS of .496, and thus a price of 5.  I can’t buy this company.  I can buy at 1.5.

NVR-NVR INC-is a home builder in the US.  They currently sell fro 1520 per share.  They are up 18% on the year.  P/E is 18.65.  Cap is 5.95b.  Short interest is 2.42.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book is 311 per share.  Average p/e is 23.31.  EPS growth this year is at 24.72.  Next 3-5 is at 23.8.  Book growth is negative.   Return on equity is at 29.  Debt is at 49.88.  Earnings are upward but quarter to quarter, things are spotty.  Return on equity is sorta spotty.  I would call 18 a fair average.  We’ll use a p/e of 17.  We’ll say book grows at 8, we could see book of 671.43 per share and thus EPS of 167.82, and thus a value of  2,853.02…conservatively speaking.  That’s a return of 6.5.  I’d buy at 1200, given my multiples here.

BVX-BOVIE MEDICAL CORP-Sells at 2.15, down 60% on the year, but still up from the 52 week low of 1.72.  P/E is 15.86. Cap is at 60.37.  No short interest.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is .91 per share.  EPS growth this year is 65%, and 15 going forwrad.  Book has shrunk this past year.  Return on equity is negative.  Debt is at 15.73%.  Historical r on e is insane.  This is a stupid little company.  I won’t buy.

AMWD-AMERICAN WOODMARK CORP-Sells at 66.22, up 64% on the year.  No dividend, P/E is at 20.69.  Cap is 1.06b.  Short interest is at 3.51.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book is at 16.38.  Earnings are expected this year.  Book is growing at 5.57.  REturn on equity is at 21.36.  Debt is 8.65.  These guys are a commodity cabinet maker.  I don’t like their business.

EBAY-Not consistently profitable.  Analysts are bullish.

ICLR-Sells at 69.49, up from the 52 week low of 55.21.  P/E is 18.77.  Cap is 3.87b.  Short interest is 4.61.  Book is 15.08 per share.  EPS this year unknown, and in 3-5 unknown.  Book growth is 10%. Return on equity is at 23.07.  No debt.  Earnings grow well, except they were terrible in 2010.  These guys do outsourced clinical studies for biotech, medical devices and pharma.  Looks like could lose a big account with phizer.  Let’s see.  I’ll consider investing at the end of 2016, price point?  We could see book of 39.11, and thus EPS of 7.822, and conservatively, a price of 117.33.  I’d buy em for 45-50, upon recheck of stats.

plnr – bought out

lrad-these guys have questionable management and they make sirens…weird

IVTY-recent ipo

LDL-LYDALL INC-these guys make performance filters.  Cap is 470.53m.  Short interest is at 1.28.  P/E is at 10.08.  They are selling for 27.69, near their 52 week low.  Analysts are gaga.  Book is 14.21 per share.  EPS forward is 9.52.  EPS next 3-5 is at 22.5.  Book growth is at 6.28 over past 5 years.  Return on equity is at 20.72, no real debt at 17.81. Historical return on equity is at a sort of uneven median of 6, but higher in recent years.  We could see book of 26.13, and we could see EPS of 5.2, and thus a share price of 52.  They seem like a good company, and they are expected to grow certainly.  Historical earnings look great too.  Earnings growth are at 22.22 compounded over the past 10 years.  This company is just getting awesome, so they don’t have the pedigree of earnings and r on e. So it’s hard to give them a good valuation.  Book has been growing at 4.84%.  I just think this company is overbought.  I’ll buy for sure at 15.  I’ll put a trigger at 20.  We’ll see.  UPON REVIEW: They are now selling at 27.47.  Book is still at 14.21.  No dividend.  Book value per share is compounding kinda slowly.  But let’s say return on equity is 10, as it has been,  and let’s give them a book of 36.86.  With a r on e of 20, we could see EPS of 7.372 and with a 10 p/e we could see a value of 73.72.  I just agree with that 20 price point.

calgon-filtration

YNDX-russian search engine…na.

VKTX-VIKING THERAPEUTICS-crap little company

PRAH-95 p/e

ASB-ASSOCIATED BANC CORP-These guys are selling at 16.38.  Book is at 19.57.  P/E is at 13.49.  Book grows at 4.23.  EPS this year 11% growth.  Next 3-5 7.66 growth.  Return on equity is 6.73.  Debt is 118%. Dividend is at .44, with 10 and tax that’s about 5.14.  Book could easily be at 29.62, and thus r on e would be 2 for a price of 20 + dividends of 5.14.  I’ll buy if they come down to 7, 10, 15.

CE-CELANESE CORP-good earnings.  Near their 52 week low, trading at 59.2. Analysts are neutral. Dividend is 1.2.  P/E is 17.84.  Cap is 8.69b.  Short interest is 3.73. Book is 18.55.  Growth this year is 5.79%.  EPS growth next 3-5 is 8.42. Return on equity is 18.12.  Debt is 88%.  Return on equity is always really high.  With 10 and tax, dividend comes to 10.39.  Book sometimes grows at very high figures, and they go through the book for various reasons year to year.  We’ll use a figure of 5%, but that is really pigeonholing them.  Book will be 30.22 eps let’s say is 50, and thus we have EPS of 15, and using a reasonable p/e of 15, we have a value of 225 plus our 10.39 dividend for a prospective yet conservative value of 235.39.  I may have to reevaluate, but this stock is close to a buy.  I’ll put an alert out for 57, and then at 55, and I may have to crunch again before trigger is pulled.

CSII-CADRIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS INC- they don’t earn money.

DGII-DIGI INTERNATIONAL INC-Analysts lurve it.  P/E is at 38.56.  Short interest is at 1.3.  Cap is at 265m.  They are up 22 in the very recent past.  Book is at 10.98 per share.  P/E was historically 59.08.  Earnings this year are supposed to be up 27%.  Book is growing at 2.71.  Return on equity is at 2.46.  There is no debt.  Ownership interest is at 3.4%.  Earnings are spotty, and they were doing better 5+ years ago.  Median return on equity is at 4.38.  This company creates wireless connectivity and remote control over industrial machinery and other stuff.  They don’t have enough stability, these guys are still using their book to stay afloat.  We’re gonna find out about earnings tomorrow after market…so this thing may shoot up on friday…or crash.

ETFC-E TRADE FINANCIAL CORPORATION-Price is 24.33.  Cap is at 7.13b.  Short interest is at 1.74.  P/E is at 33.53.  They are up 11.91% on the year.  Analysts are negative to neutral.  Book is at 20.01.  P/E historically is at 34.22.  EPS growth this year is supposed to be way up.  In next 3-5, up 18.51.  Book grows at 7.47.  Return on equity is at 3.94.  39% debt.  We could see a book value of 39.36, we could see earnings of say 1.968, and thus a price of say 59.  i guess I could buy at 15.

HBHC-HANCOCK HOLDING COMPANY-Price is 21.17. Dividend is at .96.  Cap is 1.64b.  Short interest is at 9.  Analysts don’t like it.  Book is at 31.65.  P/E average is at 19, and P/E of 11 right now.  Book value growth per share is at 24.17.  EPS is at 20.57.  Forward EPS is at 8.  Return on equity is at 6.39.  Debt is kinda low at 19%.  We’ll say 10 for book growth in the future (book of 82.09), and with a return on equity of 7, we’ll see EPS of 5.74, and with a p/e of 10, we’ll see a price of 57.4, and thus a growth rate of 10.49. I can buy at 14.5

HXL-HEXCEL CORPORATION-Sells at 39.44.  These guys have great earnings, but they seem a bit overweight.  Dividend is at .4.  P/E is at 16.09.  Cap is at 3.73b.  Short interest is at 7.75.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 12.65.  Book is growing at 14 for past 5.  EPS is estimated at +10 this coming year.  +10 over next 3-5.  Return on equity is at 19.86. Debt is at 42.  Dividend interest could come to 3.5 after tax and 10.  Too small and unreliable. Great return on equity, consistently above 20. Pretty good book growth, with a 18% clip.  Ok.  They are pretty good.  We could see book at 46.9 in 10 with 14% growth.  We could see EPS at 8.9 if we use 19 r on e.  and with a 15p/e we could see a value of 133.5 plus 3.5. With a value of 137, return would be a nice 13.26.  I would buy gladly at 33.5.  Doable.

PBCT-PEOPLES UNITED FINANCIAL INC-Sells at 14.44. Analysts love em.  P/E is at 17.01.  Dividend is at .668, 5.49 with tax and 10. Short interest is at 9.65.  Cap is at 4.48b.  Book is 15.64.  EPS growth is at 10.47.  In 3-5, 6.66.  Book is sorta stagnant over last 5.  Return on equity is at 5.42.  Debt is at 71.49.  Earnings history is pretty good.  Median return on equity is 4.8.  Book was growing very consistently, but they’ve let that stagnate over the past 10 years.  Let’s say book goes to 26.57 over the next 10.  With a low r on e we could see a 1.44 EPS, we could see a price of 21.6 plus that 5.49, for a value of 27.09.  I’d buy at 7.

RMD-RESMED INC-7.51 b cap.  8.93 short interest.  Price is 53.76. P/E is 21.81.  Dividend is at 1.2.  They are not far from their 52 week low.  Analysts love em.  They have great earnings.  With tax and ten, that dividend is 10.27.  Book is 10.47.  EPS is up 11% this year, and up 9.36 over the next 3-5.  Book growing at 4.28.  Return on equity is at 22.68.  Debt to equity is at 27.73.  Historical return on equity is at 15.16 for median.  We could see book of 15.92, and thus EPS of 2.388, and thus a share price of 47.76 with a 20 p/e plus that 10.27 in dividends. This stock is overbought.  No price point.

VASC-VASCULAR SOLUTIONS INC-Trades at 29.72.  Book is 7.19.  P/E is at 40.46.  EPS growth is 12.5.  20 over next 3-5.  Book growing at 22.91.  No debt.  Return on equity is 11.05.  Analysts love it.  Say book is at 44.52, EPS is 4.897 and with a multiple of 18, we see a price of 88.  We see an entry price of 15….everyone just expects this company to make money…but their return on equity sucks.

 

Katie waz here