DFS-DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES

Discover Revisited.  Trading at 60.22.  Neutral outlook on fidelity.  Generally, people are anticipating that the consumer credit cycle is nearing an end…I guess people are maxing out their credit cards and the credit card companies are marking allowances.  BV is at 29.46.  Forward EPs is 11.  Return on equity is at 21.77.  Debt is at 250%…standard for a credit card.  Earnings have grown well since the 2008 crisis. Dividend is at 2% yield with a  20.48% payout ratio.  That puts our 10 year price at 175.64.  Discounted to present at 15.  That puts a buy at 43.  It’s a nice company for sure.  It’s a nice company.  It will definitely grow.

BASKET

BGSF-BG STAFFING-

SO, THESE FOLKS PAY A 7% dividend of $1.  Price is 14.  EPS is thus $.75? Short interest is 1.  Book value is 4.65.  Price/Book is at 3.38.  Growth in future is expected to be very high.  Book growth is real high. Return on equiyt is at 18.57.  debt is at 73.95%.  What a weird bunch of numbers.  They are a pretty new IPO.  Why are they paying such a crazy high dividend.  They seem undervalued in a big way but they also seem weird.  They are buyable by my rubrik at 14.

Disney-Selling at 108.  Book is at 27.  We’ll say their book is really worth 70…real goodwill.  EPS growth is at 12.69.  Forward EPS growth is at 10.34.  Book growth negligible ish.  Return on equity is at 21.4.  DIsney looks pretty decent.  They’re gonnna have that ESPN trouble.  I’d buy them at 100.

HBI-Cap is at 8.93.  Dividend yield is at .6 per year. Analysts are pretty neutral.   Book is at 3.14.  Price to book is rather high, but they have the brand! All the growth looks good.   Return on equity is crazy.  This is a good, mature, business that took on a lot of debt to get free!  They make gobs of money though….they should just save it!  I think they are buyable.  I’ll set a marker for 22.

HXL-HEXCEL-Short interest is high.  Dividend is at .44.  P/E is at 19.52.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 13.7.  EPS growth is at 10ish.  Book is at 12.34. Return on equity is at 20.  LTD is at 55.  These guys are priced pretty high.  I’d buy them at say 40.  God, their earnings are good.

 

GOOG-ALPHABET INC; SBUX; NKE

Cap is at 277b.  Short interest is negligible  P/E is at 30, trailing twelve.  Dividend is none!  Analysts are very high.  Book is like 194 per share.  Price/book is 4.5.  Revenue growth last 5 is at 20.66.  Forward EPS growth is at 18.37%.  Book growth per share last 5 is at 19.8.  Return on equity is at 15.8.  Long term debt is at 2%?  Ok.  By my count we should buy this company at about 300.  But my figures are undercut by the fact that this is a growth company….ish.  They don’t need all that book value to make money.  They have 50b in cash.  Who has that?  I’m going to start a new position.  I’ll buy like 10 shares if they come down to 700.

SBUX-Cap is 84b.  Short is negligible.  Dividend is at 1per year.  P/E is at 30.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 4 or 14.97 price to book.  EPS growth is at like 16percent.  Return on equity is at 55%. Debt is at 54.42.  Earnings are pretty consistent man…earnings have increased at about 8%.  I’d buy starbucks at 45per share.

NKE-Selling at 53.45.  Book value is at 7.44.  Book not really growing.  Expected growth is at 12.  Return on equity is at 31.7.  Dividend yield is at about .8.  I’ll buy at 40.  P/E is at 23.

HBI-BOOK IS AT 3.14-PRICE/BOOK IS AT 7.7.  Cap is at 8.5.  Forward EPS is at 11.74.  Book value growth 17.79.  Return on equity 44.83.  Debt is just outrageous at 310%.  Let’s see though.  Let’s assume earnings are good.  Dividend is at .6.  Short interest is huge by the way.

I suppose I would buy if they came down to 17.

GILEAD SCIENCES INC-GILD-Cap is at 93.  Short interest is small.  Dividend yield is 2.66 with a 1.5 say dividend.  P/E is at 6.56.  Analysts are pretty happy!  Book value is at 12.76.  EPS is supposed to go DOWN.  They have a bunch of cash.  Return on equity is huge and debt is pretty high.  Meh.  Just don’t like it.

PDCO–PATTERSON COMPANIES INC-

These guys compete with Henry Schein…historically much more choppy than Henry. Short interest is at 9.7%…way high. Cap is at 4b. Dividend yield is at 2.35%. P/E is at 18.91. They are not too far from their 52 week low. Book value is at 14.32 or 2.87 p/b. Forward eps growth is at 10%. Book per share growth is neg. Return on equity is at like 14.74…kinda lowish for my purposes. They also have some debt. By my rubric I think they are buyable at like 20-25.

Generally and HANESBRANDS

I plan to revisit all equity holdings over the next few weeks, and I will also review multiple other stocks for purchase.

HBI-HANESBRANDS–Selling at 22.08.  I own a bunch through the office.  Performance over the last 52weeks is at -24%.  Short interest is at 8.45%…kinda high. Cap is at 8.32B.  P/E is 16.93.  Dividend yield is at 2%.  So we’re looking at like .44/year in dividends which is a good amount of their earnings: 1.30. Analysts are neutral to mixed negative.  Why?  I suppose this has to do with declining brick and mortar retail.  Book value is 3.14 and Price to book at 7.52…kinda high.  EPS growth expected at 11.74%.  Book grown last 5 is at 17.79.  Return on equity is really, really high.  That’s because they have all this debt…277%…omg.  So…let’s see.  Let’s do this by the book. I’d buy if it dips below 20

SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL

SYF-SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL-Revisited with a price of 25.29.  Analysts are still very bullish. P/E is at 9.4.  No short interest really.  Cap is at 21.  EPS is at 2.7.  No dividend.  Book is at 15.84.  EPS growth is at a conservative 6.  Book growth is at 22.43%. Return on equity is at like 18%.  Debt is low for credit cards.  So lets say book is at 83 in 10 years.  Let’s say that EPS is at like 14.  And thus a price of like 180 with a p/e of 12.  If these guys can grow, the’ll be great.

ALLEGHANY CORP

Y-ALLEGHANY CORP  Selling at 542.53.  Down 1.28% for the day.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is at 8.48b.  P/E is at 14.75.  EPS is at about 37. Short interest is non-existent.  Book is at about 503.  P/B is at about 1.13.  EPS growth next 3-5 is at 8.5.  Book value growth is at 21.03.  Return on equity is at 7.72.  Debt is sorta at 20%.  So let’s say Book is at 1085.94.  We could be looking at EPS of 87.  And thus a share price of like 1303.128.  So we would be talking about a gain of about 10%.  I’ll wait a bit.  I’ll buy at 520.

C, NKE, USB,

C-CITIGROUP INC-Revisited.  Big fall after yesterday’s Brexit fiasco.  Selling at 40.30.  This looks like a buying opportunity.  P/E is at 8.87.  Dividend Yield is .5.  Dividend is .05.  Short interest is nominal.  Cap is 118.28B.  Analysts don’t know what to make of these banks.  Book is at 77.52 or more.  Enterprise value is at 273.39.  Forward EPS growth is at 4.11.  Book growth is at like 4.69.  Return on equity is at like 7.35.  Debt is lowish for banks at 95.  So let’s just say, conservatively that EPS is at 4.54.  My buy point would be at something like 42.  Geez.  I think I should just buy these guys.

NKE-NIKE INC-Revisited.  Selling at 52.59.  Cap is at like 88b.  Book is at 7.3.  Long term EPS growth is at like 14.  Book growth is at like 5.43.  Return on equity is at 29.5.  Debt is at 12%.  Dividend is at like 1%.  Soo, let’s say we take that book value of 7.3.  And grow it at 25%.  Eh.  Whatevs.  I like the stock ok at its current 52.

BCS-BARCLAYS BANK PLC-Fell 20.48% cuz of Brexit.  Cap is 37b.  Short is none.  P/E not listed.  Dividend is at 4.33% yield.  .2 for the year.  Analysts are bearish.  Book is 21.23.  EPS growth is at 13.85.  Book growth nominal.  Lots of debt.  Negligible return on equity.  NOPE.

USB-US BANCORP- Selling at 39.86 today.  Short is at 1%.  Cap is at 68b.  Dividend is at .25 or 2.56% yield.  Enterprise is at 126b.  Book value is at 26.99.  Forward EPS growth is at 5%.  Book growth is at 8.  Return on equity is at 14%.  Low debt at 83%.  Wow.  These guys look good.  Let’s say return on equity is 12%.  We get book of 83.86.  We get a share price of 25.  This stock gets a little messed up because they have less book value.  I’ll buy at 35.

SRCL-STERICYCLE–Revisited.  They are selling at 100.72 now.  Cap is 8.55B.  Shares short are still there.  P/E is at 35.  Analysts are very bearish now.  Price to book is at 3.44 or 33.08 per share.  EPS growth is not noted.  Book growth last 5 is at 21%.  Return on equity is now at 10%.  Debt is now at 88.5%.  This company definitely does not look as good as it did a few months ago.  That damned shred purchase.  Hmm.  When I get my cost back, I’ll consider a sell after a review.

SYF-SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL–Selling at 24.64 now.  P/E is at 9.67.  Short interest seem low.  Cap is at 20.55b.  Analysts really love the stock.  Book is at 15.84.  EPS growth is estimated at 5.82.  Book growth is at 22.43.  Return on equity is at 18.12.  Debt is at 184.79.  Reasonable for a credit card company.  No dividend.  This stock is buyable at 28.92.  I’ll buy some more.

FDX-FEDEX CORP–Now selling at 150.57.  Cap is at 40b.  Short interest is low.  P/E is at 44.6.  Dividend is at 1.06.  or .4.  Analysts now neutral.  Book is at 53.37ish.  EPS growth is at 12.63.  Book growth is non existant.  Return on equity is at 7.  Debt at 50% of equity.

EPC, FAST, SEE, FRFHF

EPC-EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY-Edgewell is a maker of shaving, suncare, feminine and infant care products.  Analysts hate this stock.  Cap is 4.61b.  Short interest is at 45.   The stock is not far off of its 52 week low of 67.94 at 77.64.  Book is at 31.57.  EPS growth this coming year is at 10.84.  Revenue hasn’t been growing.  Return on equity is not rated.  Long term debt to equity is at 101%.  Earnings have pretty much sucked.  Dividends have been steady.

FAST-FASTENAL COMPANY-Sells at 46.49. They’re close to their 52 week high.  Short interest is at like 14.5%.  P/E is at 26.12.  Dividend yield is at 2.58%.  Cap is at 13.41.  They company has been downgraded in news over the past month.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 6.31.  Average p/e is at like 30.35.  Growth next 3-5 is at 11.28.  Next year is at 8.24.  Book is growing at like 7.03.  Return on equity is at 27.71…really high.  Not a lot of debt at like 17%.  Earnings just came in a little lower than expected.  I assume this accounts for that reported short position.  These guys would really have to drop.  I think to about $25 per share.  They just don’t grow enough.

SEE-SEALED AIR–Sells at 46.61.  P/E is at 28.6.  Short is small at 2.5%.  Cap is at 9.19b.  Dividend is at like .60 which is about 1/3rd of the eps…or so we’ll say.  EPS is at about 1.63.  Analysts are neutral to positive.  Book is at 2.85.  P/E is at 28.6.  Forward EPS is at 9.62. Revenue is down lately.  Return on equity is at 50.69.  They have a ton of debt at like 663.62%.  Ugh…they are not growing.

INTC-INTEL CORPORATION–They are priced at 30.04.  Analysts are very bullish right now.  They are between their 52 week lows and highs.  Cap is at 141.85.  Shares short are at 1.88%.  P/E is at 12.78.  Dividend is at 1.04/year…which is about 44% of the 2.35EPS.  P/E is in line.  Revenue this year is at 9% growth, and next 3-5 is at 10%.  Book value is at 4.33 per share.  Return on equity is at 19.36.  Debt to Equity is at 31.21.  Earnigns are all over the place, but there is a general uptrend.  Let’s say dividends per share are at 15.43….which would be reasonable.  So we’ll say book is at 12.29 in 10.  So we’ll say EPS at that point is at 3…generously.  We may very well see a whopping share price of 36? plus our dividend of 15.  Wow.  Not amazing.

NKE-NIKE INC-Nike is selling at 58.43, and analysts are bullish.  Cap is at 98.44b.  Short is pretty low.  P/E is at 27.05.  Dividend is at about .64/share, which is about a third of the 2.16 EPS.  Right now they are trading nearer to their 52 week high than their low.  Book is at 7.3/share.  EPS growth next year is at 14%.  next 305 is at 14%.  Book value growth is only at 5.43.  Debt is at 12.23% of equity.  They’ve been doing a great job of beating estimates, and their earnings are really steady and uptrending.  Return on equity is at 30%!  So let’s say EPS are 6.219 and thus we have a share price of say…150ish.  We might also have a dividend of 10.72ish.  They are close…they are close.  If they come down to 50, I’ll bet the farm on them.

FRFHF-FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDING LTD-Price is at 504.8.  Cap is at 11.63B.  Dividend is at 10/year.  Short interest is small.  They are between their 52 week highs and lows.  Book per share is at 456.39.  Enterprise value is at 7.7b?  Earnings growth this coming year is at about 13%.  Return on equity is negative?  Debt is at 38.39%.  I don’t know about these guys.  Markel and Brk are better.

SBUX-STARBUCKS CORPORATION-Trades at 56.31.  Cap is at 82.49B.  P/E is at 33.32..WOW.  Dividend yield is at .8/year, which is about half of their EPS.  Book is at about 3.48.  Growth is expected at 18.88/share.  This year is at about 16%.  Book growth is at about 10%. Return on equity is at about 44.69%.  Debt to equity is at about 40%.   They had a recent earnings performance that was par.  Starbucks is beset by china growth concerns, and concerns over whether they can actually grow?  I do think they are overbought.  So if they kept on growing at this stupid pace, I guess they could be buyable.  Let’s call their dividend at 12 after 10 years.  I believe they’ll be an ok investment, but they will take a good long time before they are REALLy good.

MKL-MARKEL CORP-Selling at 937 per share now.  Cap is at 13.09B.  P/E is at 22.45.  They are right at their 52 week high.  I think the issue with these guys is that they have to much exposure to casualty claims.  And things can’t be as good moving forward.  Analysts are negative to bearish.  Book is at 561.23 per share.  EPS growth next year is at 4.28.  Next 3-5 is at 10.  Book growth is at 19.82.  Return on equity is at 7.49.  Debt is at about 28%.  They are selling high because they kicked ass with their most recent earnings.  People are really hailing this company as the next berkshire…but goddamn, they are expensive.  They need to come down bro!!  I’ll buy at 850.