February 13, 2016; TMK, ATVI, KEY

So, let’s see.  This week I bought 60 shares of Citigroup C at $35.01 for the etrade account.  I also bought 60 shares of MIDD at 79.8892.  I believe these are both great purchases.

TMK-TORCHMARK CAP TR III-These guys bear Warren Buffett’s imprimatur.  Selling pretty close to their 52 week low.  They have a 6.18b cap.  3.34 short interest  P/E is at 12.38.  Dividend is at .52 so we’ll say 5.2 with tax and ten.  Analysts are bullish.  EPS is at 4.04.  Dividend payout rate is at like 13%.  Book is at 32.78.  Book value growth is at 6.69 over past 5.  Earnings growth are prjected at like 6.12 going forward.  Revenue was down for some reason.  Return on equity is at 11.71%.  It appears that they have no debt, but I could be wrong.  So looking cursorily, we could see a book value of 88.49…optimistically.  And thus we could see EPS of 10.618, and thus with a p/e of 12, we could see a price of 127.416 plus 5.2 in dividends.  That’s sort of a lackluster 10% gain.  If they came down to 35 I could consider these guys.

ATVI-ACTIVISION BLIZZARD INC-The makers of diablo and warcraft.  Trading at 28.12.  Book is at 11.04.  Cap is at 20.56b.  P/E is at 23.43.  EPS is at 1.2.  Dividend is at .26, paid yearly.  So with tax and ten we could call that 2.6.  Earnings are upward trending, but essentially we are banking on their ability to make awesome games…innovation.  Book growth was negative over past 5.  Return on equity is at 11.47.  Long term debt is at 52%.  I just don’t think these guys are predictable enough.  So let’s say EPS is at 3.6 in 10.  We could see share prices of 64.8 in 10 years plus 2.6 in dividends.  If they came down to 18 bucks I could consider buying them.

KEY-KEYCORP-Sells at 10.49.  P/E is at 9.9.  Cap is at 8.67b.  Dividend yield is at .28 so 2.8 with 10 and tax.  EPS is at 1.06, and thus dividend payout raito is at .26.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 12.86.  Average p/e is at 13.28.  Book value growth is at 4.53.  EPS growth is at 10.6 and 22.81 this coming year.  Return on equity is at 8.6.  Debt is at 95.16.  They recently bought another bank group, and I think they are going to get the acretive bump in this coming year, while they already have the debt?  So let’ s say they have book of 9 in 10, and thus we could see EPS of about 1!.  I don’t know about this stock.  I just won’t buy em.

BMY-BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO-They are selling at 60.2.  up 1% on the year.  Dividend yield is at 2.52%. P/E is at 64.73.  Cap is at 100.43b.  EPS is at .93.  Eh.  I can’t buy these guys.  We’re praying for growth here.

CHD, TMO, BDX, KSU, MIDD

CHD-CHURCH AND DWIGHT CO INC-Sells at 86.9.  Historical return on equity is at about 17. Cap is at 11.39b.  Short is at 5.32.  P/E is at 28.25.  Dividend is at about 1.4, so we’ll say 12 with ten and tax.  EPS is at 3.076.  So our dividend is at about 45.5% of Earnings.  Analysts love it.  Boov is at 15.45.  Average P/E is at 24.  Earnings growth next 3-5 are projected at about 9.07.  Book growth is at about 6%.  Return on equity this year is at about 20.64.  Debt is sorta minimal at 35.24.  These guys look like a better play than proctor and gamble.  Earnings growth is at 4.61 compounded annually.  Book growth compounds at like 8.85%.  We’ll say they grow their book at 9%, we could see book of 36.58 and thus EPS of 7.316 if we have a 20% return that year.  And thus we could see a share price of 146 with a 20p/e or 182.9 with a p/e of 25 plus that 11 in after tax diviends.  These guys are just too expenive.  I could buy if they came down to 50.

TMO-THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC-Selling at 123.18. P/E is at 25.92.  EPS is at 4.7523.  Dividend is at .6-12.6% of earnings.  Short interest is minimal at 1.66%.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 53.61.  Average p/e is at 24.46.  Earnings is at 10.59 this year.  9.93 in next 3-5.  Book growth is at 6.85 past 5.  Return on equity is at 9.56.  Debt to equity is at 52%.  Earnings growth has been at 15.04% compounded!  With tax and 10 dividends may very well be at 6.  Return on equity is always kinda low…but they do carry a lot.  We’ll call it 7%.  We’ll say they grow book at 6.5%, that gives us a book of 100 and a generous 10 EPS and thus a share price generously stated at 240 plus 6 in dividends.  These guys are steady, but they don’t grow a lot.  I’ll give em a price of like 70.

BDX-BECTON DICKINSON AND COMPANY-Sells at 135.25.  Analysts are bearish.  P/E is at 42.17.  Cap is at 28.7b.  Dividend is at 2.64 and thus about 26.4 with tax and 10.  EPS is at 3.207.  Dividend is 82% of this stock.  Book per share is at 34.  Book grows at about 8.08 over past 10.  Return on equity is at like 20 over past 10 on average.  Debt is going up…why?  Acquisition?  Buybacks? Let’s say book is at 73.95, we could see EPS of 14.79 and thus a price of 325.38 with p/e of 22 and including the diviend we could see a value of 350.  I just think they are a bit expensive….it’s that 42p/e.  I’d buy at 105 or 110.

KSU-KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN-Sells at 75.71.  Down 33.83 on the year.  Cap is at 8.21b.  Short interest is at 6.% P/E is at 17.2.  Dividend is at 1.32 so we’ll say 13.2 with tax and 10.  EPS is 4.401.  Analysts are bearish.  Earnings growth over past 10 is at 15~.  Book is at 36.09.  Average p/e is at 21.  Book growth is at 10 ovr past 5.  Forward earnings are at 3-5.  Return on equity is at 12.49.  Long term debt to equity is at 51.84.  Return on equity is pretty fairly stated at about 10%.  Steady but sorta unimpressive book growth.  We’ll call it 6.05%.  So let’s say book is at 64.94 in 10.  We could see eps of 9.741 with a nice r on e of 15.  Thus we could see a share price of 194.82 plus those dividneds of 13.2 if we use 20 as p/e.  Just to be safe, I’d set my price at 55-50.

MIDD-MIDDLEBY CORP-Selling 84.38.  Book is at 19.79.  Book growth is at like 24.05.  Return on equity is at 18.11.  Debt is at 58.64.  Earnings growth is at 3.88% over the past 10. Return on equity would be conservatively stated at 20.  Book value growth has been insane at like 33% over the past 10.  They are just acquiring and growing.  They are trading near 52 week lows.  They are down 9% on the year.  Cap is at 5.02.  P/e is at 25.82, average is at 24.09.  Let’s say they grow their book at 15.  We could see book per share of 80.06, and thus EPS of 16 with 20 return on equity.  We could thus see a price of 320 if we use a p/e of 20.  Wow.  If they came down to 80, I’d buy a ton.  They are a great company.

Updates

Been watching closely.  Today I bought 50 shares of Stericycle SRCL at 109.9.  They are down 5%~ today because of “guidance.”  I also bought 200 shares of HBI at 26.0415.  These are super low valuations.  Not very speculative if viewed over the course of a 5-10 year timeline.

Baidu and Alibaba are tripping my alerts.  They are selling at great prices if you can trust their earnings figures.

I’m gonna reset my stericycle trigger at 110.

Hanes will be reset at 28 and then at 25.

EA went below their 55 price trigger.  I’ll reassess this one.

Baidu went below the 145 price trigger.

I’m keeping an eye on Amazon.  They went to 500.

For a brief time, Buffalo Wild Wings went below my price trigger of 137.

GILD, USB, CVS, TSQ

GILD-GILEAD SCIENCES INC-Selling at 83.00 right at the 52 week low.  Cap is at 119.62.  P/E is at 7.6.  Short interest is at 1.61.  Dividend is at 1.72 per shrare annualized…but it does look like they just started their dividend in 2015.  EPS is 10.92 and thus dividend is at about 16% of EPS.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book value is at 12.02.  Enterprise value is at 126b.  Book per share is at 19.36 growth.  EPS this year is supposed ot be slightly negative, but then 14.69 growht over next 5.  Return on equity is at 102%.  Debt is at 86%.   Earnings growth kinda goes up and down year to year, but compounds at an insane 28%.  These guys are a biotech firm under political scrutiny due to their prices.  If they don’t get crushed by some kind of new regulation, they’ll pretty clearly be a buy, but let’s see, return on equity will be at like 30 historically.  Book grows at an insane 20% over the last 10.  So let’s say book grows at 15%, we’d have book of 48.63, and thus EPS of 14.589 and thus a share price of 116 using an 8 p/e.  I’m giving this company pretty much every opportunity to suck and in the worst case scenario I think it will work out, but let’s say they continue on their trajectory.  We could see book of 74.42, and thus EPS of say 37.21 with a .5 r on e. and with a 15 p/e we could see a price of say,  558.15.  That’s a monster 20.99 return.  If they came down to 70, I’d take a position.  There is a lot of speculative growth potential, but their are powerful forces at work here.

USB-US BANCORP-Selling at 40.  The 52 week low is at 37.97.  Dividend is at 1 per year.  P/E is at 12.64 and EPS is at 3.16, and thus dividends are 32% of EPS.  Short interest is at .79%.  Analysts are bearish.  Earnings are pretty good, but they are a bank and so they suffered during the recession.  70b in cap.  Book is at 26.44.  Forward EPS is at 7.99 growth.  5.4 in next 3-5 years.  Book growth is at 8% over last 5.  Return on equity is at 14.  Debt is at 83.51.  Return on equity is always at like 13.  Book grows at a very consistent 8%.  So let’s say book is at 57.08.  Let’s say that dividend is at 10 with ten and tax.  We could see EPS of say 7.42 and with a p/e of 12, we could see a price of say 94 plus the ten for a value of 104.  That’s a pretty great 10% return.  I see why buffett likes these guys.  They are gonna be a great stock, but they are only gonna compound at like 10.  I’d buy for 25 and hold for life.  I’ll by at 32 because they are so good.

CVS-CVS HEALTH CORPORATION-Selling at 96.59.  Cap is at 106.96b.  Short interest is at 1.39.  P/E is at 21.8.  Dividend is at 1.7.  EPS is at 4.43 and thus dividend is at 38% of earnings.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 33.49.  P/E average is at 18.08.  Earnings are projected to grow at 12.77 and 14.41 over next3-5.  Book only grew at 1.2% this year?  Return on equity is at 13.54 this year.  Debt is at 41.4.   Earnings have been growing very well.  Earnings grew at 12.66 over the past 10…wow. Book has been growing at a fantastic pace.  Book has grown at 12.83 in the past 10.  Return on equity is at about 12 average.  So let’s say book is at 104.01 in 10, and so with r on e of 12, we could see EPS of 12.48 and with an average p/e of 18, we could see a price of 224.64 plus dividends of say 15, we’ll call it 240.  That’s a 9.53% return.  My entry point is at 75.

TSQ-TOWNSQUARE MEDIA INC-Sells at 9.4.  Selling near their 52 week low.  No dividend.  P/E is at 25.41.  .8% short interest.  Cap is at 167.87m.  Analysts are kinda neutral.  Book is at 20.20.  No earnings estimates.  No EPS growth estimates.  Return on equity is at 3.6%?  Debt to equity is at 162.99.  These guys have very spotty earnings growth.  Na.  This is speculative stuff that some guy in Barron’s suggested.

DHR, JKHY, HXL

DHR-DANAHER CORP-These guys have great earnings, and they are set to split into 2 companies in q3 of 2016.  Cap is 59.38b.  P/E is at 23.61.  Dividend is at .54.  They are up 3.24% on the year.  Analysts are neutral. Book is at 34.49 per share.  Enterprise value is at 71.46b.  I’m thinking these guys are trying to unlock additional value by splitting into 2 more focused holidng companies.  Forward EPS is at 11.2.  Book growth is at 11.56.  Return on equity is at 11.03.  Debt is at 31.47.  It looks like this stock went up on news of the impending split.  I just don’t think their growth is going to grow enough.  Let’s say book grows to 77 using current figures, we could see EPS of 8.53, and thus a price of maybe 187 plus say $5 in dividends.  They are currently selling at 86.65.  I’d buy at 50.  It would be speculative to reason they would shoot up upon splitting.

JKHY-JACK HENRY AND ASSOCIATES INC-Selling at 81.18.  P/E is at 30.29.  Cap is at 6.49.  Short interest is at 4%.  Dividned is 1 per year, so about 7.5 with ten and tax.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 11.94 per share.  Average p/e is at 23.  EPS this year 11.15, next year is at 11.5.  Book growth is at 5.73 over past 5.  Debt is at 3.17.  Return on equity is at 22.64.  EPS is at 2.68.  Dividend is thus at 37%.  Historical return on equity is more like 18 average.  Book is growing at 6.85 annual average.  Let’s say book is 23.16 and thus EPS of 4.63, and with a pe of more like 24, we could see a share price of 111 plus dividends of 7.5.  Earnings compound at 11.55 over past 9.  So let’s say we use 63% of that to grow, that would be compounding at a rate of 7.27 moving forward.  I just don’t know about this stock.  I’ll put a marker for 65 and i’ll keep an eye on these guys.

HXL-HEXCEL CORPORATION-Cap is at 3.91b.  Price is at 41.38.  They are 7% down on the year.  Dividend is at .4, so we’ll say $3 with 10 and tax per share.  P/E is at 16.96 and so we have EPS of 2.4398 and thus we have a 16% of EPS dividend.  Book is at 12.62.  Analysts are neutral.  7.52% short interest.  The aerospace industry is kinda suffering right now, but analysts expect a secular tailwind with increased aerospace spending. Historical return on equity can be stated at about 15.5.  Book has been growing at a nice clip, nearly 15%.  EPS is grwoing at 25% last 5 years.  EPS growht is supposed to be 17.19 this coming year and 11.66 in next 3-5  Book growth is at 12.34 over past 5 years.  Return on equity is at 19.82 this year.  Debt is at 45.14.   Earnings growth are compounding at like 14.42%.  This is a nice stock.  Wonder if there are unseemly things going on under the surface.  So let’s say that book grows at 12.  We could see book per share of 39.2, and thus EPS of 6.66 with a generous 17 r on e, and with a p/e of 16, we could see a price of say 10662 plus that dividend of 3 with ten and tax.  we’ll say they have a value of 110 in ten years….conservatively speaking.  I’d buy if they came down to 30…in all seriousness they could seriously grow.

 

 

 

 

BCPC, AMGN

BCPC-BALCHEM CORPORATION-Selling at 56.14.  Earnings compounding at an awesome 15.34%.  Return on equity is historically between 18-20, been at about 15 for the past 3 years.  Book growing very steadily, compounding at 18.53%.  Short interest is at 3.73.  Cap is at 1.77b.  P/E is at 28.07.  Dividend is at .34 for a .61% yield, paid once a year.  EPS is at 2 so dividends are at like 17% of eps.  Analysts are pretty bearish, but most are neutral.  Book is at 14.52 per share.  Enterprise value is at 1.99.  Eps this year is at .82 and no estimate for next 3-5.  Book growth is at 21.64 over past 5 years.  Return on equity this year is at 14.86.  Debt is at 66.96.  This company is at the top of their industry in most statistics.  They are also “best” stock of the past 30 years.  Average p/e is at 32, and now they are trading at 28.  Industry average is at about 20, as low as 16, because the industry is a bit depressed right now.  So let’s say dividend is at $3 after tax and ten.    Let’s say they grow book at 14% annually, they could be looking at a book value of 53.83 and thus EPS of 9.6894, and thus EPS of 271.30 with a p/e of 28, and iwth a p/e of 16, as low as 154.88.  I suppose the risk is whether their earnings stay strong.  This is obviously great stock.  They are the leading supplier of packaged 100% ethylene oxide to the healthcare industry.  They package hazardous materials in environmentally safe containers via fleet trucks.  They also produce fumigants for insect control and food contamination.  Let’s go with the compounding earnings figure.  They pay 17% of EPS in dividends so, let’s compound book by 12…very conservative, and return on equity of 15, for EPS of 6.765, and with p/e of 20, we see a price of 135.3 on the very conservative side.  That’s a steady return of 10.39 with a price of 50.  We’ll I’ll watch for a while.  I’ll buy a bit at 55, and i’ll buy at 53, and I’ll buy at 51.  The stock market is weird though.  Everything fluctuates on these huge macro issues, and these tool bags who play the earnings calls, and these dirtbag inside traders.

AMGN-AMGEN INC-Selling at 152.73.  Cap is at 115.21b.  Book is at 37.25. EPS growth next 3-5 is at 9.53.  Book growth is at 3.24%.   Return on equity is at 25.22.  Debt to equity is at 109.38.  Earnings have compounded at 11.49. Return on equuity is awesome, even through the recession.  average is at about 20.  Book is growing at an awesome clip.  It was growing at about 8.45 compounded over 10. Analysts love it.  Short interest is at 1.2%.  EPS is at 9.026.  They recently raised their dividend to 1 per share…wow.  That’ll be about 30, at least, after 10 and tax.  they are mid way between 52 week low and high.  Let’s say they compound book at 8.45, we could see book of 83.83, and thus an EPS of a pretty conservative 16.76, and with a p/e of 16, we could see a price of 268 plus 30 in dividends.  It’s a pretty good stock, with great growth prospects, but I would see an entry point of about 120 more to my liking.

MHK, UA

MHK-MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC-Selling at 163.38, not far off the 52 week low of 153.  No dividend.  2% short interest.  12b cap.  P/E is at 21.33.  PEG is 1.43.  EPS is 7.6596.  Analysts are neutral to negative.  Book is at 64.25.  Earnings growth is high, 17.11 in the next year.  14.9 in the next 3-5.  These guys are viewed as beneficiaries of the uptrend in houses being sold.  Can this trend continue?  Return on equity is at 12.68.  Debt is at 28%.  Earnings grow well, but they had a tough time after the recession.  EPS In 2006 was 6.57.  Book growth is at 6.66.  I would feel comfortable compounding at a figure of about 6.66.  We’ll say book is at 122.43, and thus 14.69 in EPS and thus a speculative 293.83 in price.  I don’t believe in this stock.  I could see buying at 75…I don’t like this company.

UA-UNDER ARMOUR INC-Selling at 84.07 after shooting up 22.59% today.  Book is at 7.11.  P/E is now at 70.  EPS growth is at 20+.  Book is at 27.55% growth.  Return on equity is at 15.1.  Debt is at 37.36.  This is a hard stock to analyze.  We’ll go with 17% growth.  Let’s say they have book of 34, and then a p/e of 20, we could see a price of like 680.  Wow, I get why this is shooting right up.  They’re getting all the big names in sports right now.  Lebron doesn’t have  too much longer.  Kobe is retiring.  These guys are riding Steph Curry’s wave.  Can they maintain their earnings?  Did steph curry make a deal with the devil?  I’ll watch, we’ll set a price point for 60 and we’ll watch.

PG, LNCE

PG-PROCTER AND GAMBLE CO-Selling at 78.805 today.  Down 15.56% on the year.  Dividend yield is at 3.45.  P/E is at 25.28.  Short interest is at .97%.  Cap is at 209.08b.  EPS is 3.1168.  Thus dividend is 2.65 and thus dividend is 85% of earnings.  Analysts are very neutral.  Earnings are really uneven.  I just don’t think these guys are a great candidate.

 

IHS, AN

IHS INC-Cap is at 6.62b.  Book is 32.59.  EPS is at 36 average is at 46.68.  Enterprise value is at 8.46.  Earnings growth next year is at 9.52.  EPS long term is at 9.86.  Return on equity is at 8.61.  Debt is at 3.98.  These guys have been growing by acquisition.  This is seemingly why their debt is high and why r on e is lowish.  Eh.  Maybe not, these figures are in line with the norm. Analysts hate it.  Short interest is very low.  These guys are a commodity analytics provider.   Using a generous 10 for r on e, we have a book value of 84.53 and thus an EPS of say 8.453 and thus a share price of say 253 using a loft 30 p/e.  They are currently selling at 96.56.  They are pricey.  I’ll watch and set an alert for 70.  These guys are a good company, but they are almost in the category of a growth stock without a walloping galloping type of growth.

AN-AUTONATION INC-Sells at 45.18.  Cap is 5b.  Short interest is at 3.64.  P/E is at 11.3.  They’re at their 52 week low.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 20.40.  Average p/e is 17.  Book is shrinking.  Growth is at 13.48 and 12.7 long term.  Return on equity is at 20.97. Debt is at 87%.  Great historical earnings.  Return on equity is very good and growing with the excepition of 2008.    Book value per share is goo d except for 2008.  We’ll say book will be 82.5 in 10, and thus we might see eps of 16.5, and thus a price of 247 in 10 with a 15 p.e or maybe 160 with a 10 p/e.   This is a pretty good stock.