February 13, 2016; TMK, ATVI, KEY

So, let’s see.  This week I bought 60 shares of Citigroup C at $35.01 for the etrade account.  I also bought 60 shares of MIDD at 79.8892.  I believe these are both great purchases.

TMK-TORCHMARK CAP TR III-These guys bear Warren Buffett’s imprimatur.  Selling pretty close to their 52 week low.  They have a 6.18b cap.  3.34 short interest  P/E is at 12.38.  Dividend is at .52 so we’ll say 5.2 with tax and ten.  Analysts are bullish.  EPS is at 4.04.  Dividend payout rate is at like 13%.  Book is at 32.78.  Book value growth is at 6.69 over past 5.  Earnings growth are prjected at like 6.12 going forward.  Revenue was down for some reason.  Return on equity is at 11.71%.  It appears that they have no debt, but I could be wrong.  So looking cursorily, we could see a book value of 88.49…optimistically.  And thus we could see EPS of 10.618, and thus with a p/e of 12, we could see a price of 127.416 plus 5.2 in dividends.  That’s sort of a lackluster 10% gain.  If they came down to 35 I could consider these guys.

ATVI-ACTIVISION BLIZZARD INC-The makers of diablo and warcraft.  Trading at 28.12.  Book is at 11.04.  Cap is at 20.56b.  P/E is at 23.43.  EPS is at 1.2.  Dividend is at .26, paid yearly.  So with tax and ten we could call that 2.6.  Earnings are upward trending, but essentially we are banking on their ability to make awesome games…innovation.  Book growth was negative over past 5.  Return on equity is at 11.47.  Long term debt is at 52%.  I just don’t think these guys are predictable enough.  So let’s say EPS is at 3.6 in 10.  We could see share prices of 64.8 in 10 years plus 2.6 in dividends.  If they came down to 18 bucks I could consider buying them.

KEY-KEYCORP-Sells at 10.49.  P/E is at 9.9.  Cap is at 8.67b.  Dividend yield is at .28 so 2.8 with 10 and tax.  EPS is at 1.06, and thus dividend payout raito is at .26.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 12.86.  Average p/e is at 13.28.  Book value growth is at 4.53.  EPS growth is at 10.6 and 22.81 this coming year.  Return on equity is at 8.6.  Debt is at 95.16.  They recently bought another bank group, and I think they are going to get the acretive bump in this coming year, while they already have the debt?  So let’ s say they have book of 9 in 10, and thus we could see EPS of about 1!.  I don’t know about this stock.  I just won’t buy em.

BMY-BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO-They are selling at 60.2.  up 1% on the year.  Dividend yield is at 2.52%. P/E is at 64.73.  Cap is at 100.43b.  EPS is at .93.  Eh.  I can’t buy these guys.  We’re praying for growth here.

CHD, TMO, BDX, KSU, MIDD

CHD-CHURCH AND DWIGHT CO INC-Sells at 86.9.  Historical return on equity is at about 17. Cap is at 11.39b.  Short is at 5.32.  P/E is at 28.25.  Dividend is at about 1.4, so we’ll say 12 with ten and tax.  EPS is at 3.076.  So our dividend is at about 45.5% of Earnings.  Analysts love it.  Boov is at 15.45.  Average P/E is at 24.  Earnings growth next 3-5 are projected at about 9.07.  Book growth is at about 6%.  Return on equity this year is at about 20.64.  Debt is sorta minimal at 35.24.  These guys look like a better play than proctor and gamble.  Earnings growth is at 4.61 compounded annually.  Book growth compounds at like 8.85%.  We’ll say they grow their book at 9%, we could see book of 36.58 and thus EPS of 7.316 if we have a 20% return that year.  And thus we could see a share price of 146 with a 20p/e or 182.9 with a p/e of 25 plus that 11 in after tax diviends.  These guys are just too expenive.  I could buy if they came down to 50.

TMO-THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC-Selling at 123.18. P/E is at 25.92.  EPS is at 4.7523.  Dividend is at .6-12.6% of earnings.  Short interest is minimal at 1.66%.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 53.61.  Average p/e is at 24.46.  Earnings is at 10.59 this year.  9.93 in next 3-5.  Book growth is at 6.85 past 5.  Return on equity is at 9.56.  Debt to equity is at 52%.  Earnings growth has been at 15.04% compounded!  With tax and 10 dividends may very well be at 6.  Return on equity is always kinda low…but they do carry a lot.  We’ll call it 7%.  We’ll say they grow book at 6.5%, that gives us a book of 100 and a generous 10 EPS and thus a share price generously stated at 240 plus 6 in dividends.  These guys are steady, but they don’t grow a lot.  I’ll give em a price of like 70.

BDX-BECTON DICKINSON AND COMPANY-Sells at 135.25.  Analysts are bearish.  P/E is at 42.17.  Cap is at 28.7b.  Dividend is at 2.64 and thus about 26.4 with tax and 10.  EPS is at 3.207.  Dividend is 82% of this stock.  Book per share is at 34.  Book grows at about 8.08 over past 10.  Return on equity is at like 20 over past 10 on average.  Debt is going up…why?  Acquisition?  Buybacks? Let’s say book is at 73.95, we could see EPS of 14.79 and thus a price of 325.38 with p/e of 22 and including the diviend we could see a value of 350.  I just think they are a bit expensive….it’s that 42p/e.  I’d buy at 105 or 110.

KSU-KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN-Sells at 75.71.  Down 33.83 on the year.  Cap is at 8.21b.  Short interest is at 6.% P/E is at 17.2.  Dividend is at 1.32 so we’ll say 13.2 with tax and 10.  EPS is 4.401.  Analysts are bearish.  Earnings growth over past 10 is at 15~.  Book is at 36.09.  Average p/e is at 21.  Book growth is at 10 ovr past 5.  Forward earnings are at 3-5.  Return on equity is at 12.49.  Long term debt to equity is at 51.84.  Return on equity is pretty fairly stated at about 10%.  Steady but sorta unimpressive book growth.  We’ll call it 6.05%.  So let’s say book is at 64.94 in 10.  We could see eps of 9.741 with a nice r on e of 15.  Thus we could see a share price of 194.82 plus those dividneds of 13.2 if we use 20 as p/e.  Just to be safe, I’d set my price at 55-50.

MIDD-MIDDLEBY CORP-Selling 84.38.  Book is at 19.79.  Book growth is at like 24.05.  Return on equity is at 18.11.  Debt is at 58.64.  Earnings growth is at 3.88% over the past 10. Return on equity would be conservatively stated at 20.  Book value growth has been insane at like 33% over the past 10.  They are just acquiring and growing.  They are trading near 52 week lows.  They are down 9% on the year.  Cap is at 5.02.  P/e is at 25.82, average is at 24.09.  Let’s say they grow their book at 15.  We could see book per share of 80.06, and thus EPS of 16 with 20 return on equity.  We could thus see a price of 320 if we use a p/e of 20.  Wow.  If they came down to 80, I’d buy a ton.  They are a great company.

Updates

Been watching closely.  Today I bought 50 shares of Stericycle SRCL at 109.9.  They are down 5%~ today because of “guidance.”  I also bought 200 shares of HBI at 26.0415.  These are super low valuations.  Not very speculative if viewed over the course of a 5-10 year timeline.

Baidu and Alibaba are tripping my alerts.  They are selling at great prices if you can trust their earnings figures.

I’m gonna reset my stericycle trigger at 110.

Hanes will be reset at 28 and then at 25.

EA went below their 55 price trigger.  I’ll reassess this one.

Baidu went below the 145 price trigger.

I’m keeping an eye on Amazon.  They went to 500.

For a brief time, Buffalo Wild Wings went below my price trigger of 137.