BBRY-3.85b cap.  14.43 short interest.  No earnings.  Selling for 6.985.  Analysts are bearish.  Earnings paint a sad picture.  They just lose money.  Good until 2012, and from then on it’s just been downhill.  Book is 6.57 per share.  This year is gonna have les earnings per share.  3-5 years out is an expected 1%.  Book value is shrinking at 14% per year.  Return on equity is at 1.66.  They have 38% debt to equity.  They pay no dividend.  Given their lack of earnings, and assuming they can earn 1% growth per year…I might be willing to buy for about 1.5.

VIA-VIACOM INC-Selling at 39.85.  P/E is at 8.72   Dividend is at 3.86%.  They are pretty much at their 52 week low.  There is a 4.5% short interest.  Analysts are neutral.  Cap is at 13.83b. Book is 8.89 per share.  Earnings growth this coming year should be about 15%.  Book value growth is negative.  Return on equity is a huge 63.7.  Shit load of debt with 346% d/e.  Earnings growth is compounded at about 11.38 per year.  They are the sixth largest broadcasting company behind comcast, disney fox, time warner and cbs.  They own Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon, Paramount, Spike, TVLand, BET, CMT, Logo, Palladia, VH1.  Their programming is good, but a little on the offbeat side.  I do want in on the programming/content side of things because I really see society valuing that even more, but this one seems expensive.  Huge return on equity figures…due to that debt with an average of about 50.  I think they are overvalued.  Granted they don’t need machinery.  I’d pay 20 for them.  UPON REVIEW, return on equity is generally huge with these guys…cuz a that debt.  Price to earnings is now at 8.39 after drops the last few days.  EPS are at 4.57.  and dividend is at 1.6 per year.  So we’ll say after tax dividends are at 12.84.  We can say book will be at 39.22.  we could say EPS will be at 8.62 and with that low p/e valuation of 8.72, we’d be looking at a share price of maybe 75.23 plus that dividend of 12.84.  So we’ll call it a conservative 87.  We’d be looking at a conservative 8.12% rate of return.  I’ll revise my price to 24.

JWN-NORDSTROM INC- Selling at 45.45 they are at a 52 week low.  These retailers are having a tough time.  Market cap is 8.42b.  There is a 15% short interest.  P/E is at 13.12.  They pay a 3% dividend.  Analysts are bearish.  Earnings are sad and spotty and down trending at a compounded rate of 3.2 growth…downward in the last 5 years.  Return on equity is consistently more than 20…tells me their debt is big.  Book per share is 7.59.  Earnings growth this year is 6, forward 4.84.  Book value growth last 5 is 9% per year.  Debt to equity is 198.86.  This isn’t a pretty picture for such a nice company…this is where I like to buy my suits.  With these earnings, I wouldn’t pay more than 10.  I think all the suit wearing brokers must be sentimental about this one.  They are overweight.

NFLX-NETFLIX INC is selling at 104.04.  The stock has gone up 131% this past year.  Thye have great programming, and its easy to use and a great product.  There is an 11% short interest.  They have a cap of 45.76b.  P/E of 283.83!  Analysts are bearish for good reason.  I think they look overbought and shortable…but then the whole world is crazy.  They have 5.07 in book per share.  EPS this past year v. the year before is -29%.  In the next 3-5 its expected to be at 24.5  Book value is expected to grow at 50%.  Return on equity is 8%.  Debt to equity is 110%.  Their earnings are downward trending?  I guess people expect things to pick up.  This is a crazy stock.  People are just riding the wave of crazy here.  I would buy em at 10…haha.  UPON REVIEW, they have EPS of .367.  Their return on equity is 8%, but their book is expected to sky rocket.  Historirn on equity is probably in the 15% range….that’s the figure I’ll use here.  Book could easily be 20.51 in 10 years.  EPS in 10 years would be 4.102.  And so with a P/E of 50, that would put their price at 206…a return of 7.07, and if we use the speculative multiple of 283!, we’d have a value of 1,160…a return of 27%…right!  I’ll adjust their price point to 50…call me crazy.

BBW-BUILD A BEAR WORKSHOP INC- is selling at 12.49 per share.  Near their 52 week low  of 10.74. There is an 8.33% short interest.  They have a P/E of 11.65.  No dividend.  Analysts are bullish.  They have 5.59 in book per share.  Growth this past year was great.  This year is unknown or negligible.  3-5 is expected to be 30+ per year.  Book growth is at -9.  Return on equity is at 20 this syear.  They have no debt.  Earnings are shit and/or negative, but sometimes they post a good quarter.  I’d buy them for 1.38.  I don’t see how this company is gonna catch on.  It’ s a cheesy idea.  UPON REVIEW, people with kids seem to like this place.  Their stores always seemed kinda run down.  I could just see this place going out of business for some reason. That being said, there is a margin of safety here.   Cap is at 204m.  They have up years and down years as to return on equity.  I would feel ok giving them an average of 10, so lets say book is 14.50 in 10.  Let’s say their earnings per share are 1.45 in 10 years.  they might very well be selling at 14.50 in 10 years…ya. And they are a scary company.   I’ll revise their price to 3.58.  Huge risk of catastrophic loss in my opinion.

BWLD-BUFFALO WILD WINGS INC- is selling at 147.51, a 52 week low.  Analysts are dour.  There is a 14% short interest, a 32 p/e.  No dividend.  Cap is at 2.81b.  Book is 34.39 per share.   EPS last 5 is 23.98.   This past year there was a -5 earnings growth?  Why?  Forward 3-5 is expected to be 17.82.  Book value per share growth last 5 is 22%.  Their margins are kinda slim.  Maybe their model is getting old.  Return on equity is at 15%.  They have 11% debt to equity.  I love their wings.  Their growth is compounding at 20.89 for their shares.  But there was a big dip recently.  Why?  Looks like they spent money buying back franchised locations.  It looks like there are 1111 stores, but I think they can grow.  I think their rate of growth is sustainableish…but they need more stores, and they need international stores to be a hit…right now there are only 13 in mexico and arab countries.  They are simply priced to high for their growth.  I could see paying like 50 per share.  UPON REVIEW, they have EPS of 4.61.  No dividend.  They grow their book at 15.  They could have book of 139.13.  And so their earnings in 10 years could be 27.82.  Ad with those crazy p/es they could be worth 556 with a p/e of 20.  That would be nearly 14.2%.  If they come down to 137, I’ll buy.

CHE-CHEMED CORPORATION-I wish I could buy it at a good price.  They are up 35% off their 52 week low.  They sell for 139.9. There is a 13% short interest.  22 P/E.  They pay a .69% dividend.  Analysts are in love.  I kinda love the stock.  They have 2 segments…rotorooter! and hospice care.  Cap is at 2.36b.  Book is 29.12 per share.  Earnings growth next 3-5 is at 10%.  Book is shrinking.  Return on equity is 23.26.  They have 30.55 debt to equity.  They have clockwork earnings compounding at 13.49 per year.  I just cant justify buying for more than 55.  Maybe 60.  Wha-ma-doo.  UPON REVIEW: EPS is at 6.31.  Dividend is at about .96 per share.  Dividends after tax would be approx. 8.17.   Book value could easily come to like 134 (assuming 15% growth)  and with that 20% return on equity, we’d be looking at EPS of 26.8 in 10 years.  And with that high p/e we could be looking at a price of 536 with a 20p/e plus those 8.17 in dividend.  We’re looking at a great growth rate.  This is a great company. Let’s say we bring the p/e down to 15, share price would be402 with that dividend of 8, we’d be looking at a 11.35% growth rate.  The company seems to be fairly priced from a conservative/risk averse standpoint.  I think I can justify buying at 139.  I think for safety’s sake I’ll set the alert for 135, 130, 125.  Price is revised.

VRX-VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS INTERNATIONAL INC is a scandal plagued company selling for 88.7 per share.  P/E is at 51.01.  There is a 3.5% short interest.  Cap is at 30.26b.  They are up from 69 the 52 week low.  The performance over the last 52 weeks is 42.75. Analysts are bearish. Book is 18.49 per share.  Book is growing big time.  Earnings projections are projected for 30+% this coming year.  Next 3-5 is projected at 18.55. Return on equity is at 9.86.  Debt to equity is at 475%.  This is a crazy company.  Munger hates em.  He says their debt fueled acquisition of drug patents and price gouging is unsustainable and unethical.  I would buy em at 5. UPON REVIEW, considering the contrarian play, let’s say EPS is 1.73.  No dividend.  Let’s keep return on equity at 10%.  Book would be worth 47.96.  Let’s say EPS are 4.79.  Let’s say the P/E is at 30, price would be worth 143.  I’ll revise my price point at 35.

 

AAPL-APPLE INC-Selling for 97.13. Trouble on the horizon given that earnings can go nowhere but down.  Analysts are pretty bullish, but then all the mutual funds need to ride this train to get anywhere.  FANG anybody?  So, I don’t think it’s speculation to say that their earnings will likely taper…or fail to meet expectations.  And that’s gonna create instability.  Their cab is 551b.  Minimal short interest.  P/E is 10.8.  They are trading at $5 above the 52 week low.  They have 21.39 in book value per share.   They expect 9% earnings growth this year v. 43% year over previous year.  Long term growth of 13.92%.  Book value growth over last 5 is 20.09%.  Huge margins, huge returns on equity.  44% debt to equity.  Lots of cash stuck overseas.  The company is full of geniuses, and there doesn’t seem to be a proper competitor on the horizon, although android phones seem poised for more consistent growth.  16% compounded growth in earnings over 9 years.  Return on equity is like a huge 30% over the last 10 years.  Maybe more like 35.  Can they continue?  This company’s meteoric rise historical, but I think it would be speculative to anticipate their growth to continue uninterrupted.  So a price given these concerns?  Given their book value and a 20% conservative forward return on equity 32 is the price.  This company’s earnings are huge, but they are just plain old a growth stock.  I can’t rationalize buying them for more than 45.  UPON REVIEW: they are now trading at 97.13.  P/E is 10.56.  Dividend is at 2.08 per share.  EPS is at 9.197.  With 10 and tax dividend is at 17.97.  21.39 in book and huge and unsustainable growth, we’ll call their future return on equity, given that dividend, 15%, for book of 86.53.  With a 20% return on that, we’re looking at EPS of 17.3.  And thus, maybe, a price of 170  plus the 17.97.  I reiterate my 45-50 point.

WMT-WALMART STORES INC-Trading at 61.93 after a huge fall this year…down almost 30% because they announced they were gonna be buying back shares, focusing on getting online sales right, retaining more high income customers, and improving quality of in store appearance.  This past weekend, my wife and I had occasion to visit a Wal-Mart in Peoria, and the store was amazing.  Wal-Mart is an important part of this country.  People spend their hard earned money at Wal-Mart for things their families need.  And Wal-Mart does a better job than any other store.  We’ll see how online shopping effects sales in the years to come…so there’s some risk.  Earnings are at risk over the next couple of years as well, but then we’ll see them grow steadily…I hope.  Cap of 201.91b.  3% dividend.  P/E trailing 12 is 13.5…I could see this going up unless the stock falls.  Analysts are VERY BULLISH.   Book per share is 24.79.   Growh over last 5 years is 6%.  This past year was down 2.71.  Projected 3-5 growth is a negligible 1.2%.  Book value growth per share is 2.84%.  Margins are naturally sorta small cuz we’re dealing with a big box store here.  Return on equity is 19.07.  Debt to equity is 55%.  Compounded earnings growth is at like 5.2%.  Geez…this company is for old geezers.  Big dividend, not a lot of growth.  Return on equity is consistently pretty high.  I think I can justify a price point of like 16.  Ya.  I’m not gonna get a lot of growth out of this company.  UPON REVIEW, they have a p/e of 13.26, they have a dividend of 1.96.  With 10 and tax, 17.62 on the dividend.  EPS is at 4.67.  And thus the dividend is about 42 percent of earnings. We’ll say we can count on a 13% return on equity, we’d be looking at 84.15 for book, and thus a 15.98EPS and thus a share price of 207.74 conservatively, plus the 17.6.  We’re right about there with Wal-Mart.  We’re at 13.79, but if they drop to 55 we’re good.  I’m gonna set different price points at 61, 60, 59, 58, 57, 56, 55.  In fairness, we’ll likely get a bump short term.  And that’s with a conservative p/e.

COST-COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION is a great company…they just screwed AMEX in a big way though.  They are selling at 150.39.  Cap is 67b.  Dividend is 1%.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is 24.67 per share.  Book per share growth is negative over past 5 years.  Forward earnings are looking like 8%ish.  Return on equity is a nice 22.  Their margins are small.  I think the deal with these guys is they need more stores to get more earnings…cuz their margins are staying the same.  Earnings growth over past 9 years is like 9.22 compounded.  Historical return on equity is pretty good at about 19 average.  They have 44.66% return on equity.  I’d give them a price of about 20…this is another old man stock…it exists to pump out dividends…except they dont pay a dividend.  P/E is at 28.69.  I just think that they earn good money, but they don’t grow.  I think they are headed for a fall.  They are overweight.  I’d buy them for 70.  They are a big box growth stock.  UPON REVIEW, EPS is 5.34.  dividend is at 1.6, and with 10 and tax, that’s about 14.12.  Dividend is about 30% of earnings.  We’ll go with a conservative 13.3 for future return on equity, and with a book of 24.67, we’re looking at book of 85.99, and thus EPS OF 16.33, and we’ll go with a multiple of only 15 p/e, and we’ll be at a price of 245 plus the 14.12 for a value of 259.19…and thus I won’t buy em unless they come to that 70 price figure.

IBM-INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP  Trading at their 52 week low with a price of 130.03.  Analysts are bullish: because of Buffett?  Their cap is 128.94b.  P/E is 9.12.  Dividend is 3.91%.  They have engaged in serious buybacks, and they’ve taken on a bunch of debt to do it…taking advantage of the low fed rate I presume.  Compounded growth of earnings is 10.46.  They seriously manipulate their return on equity figures.  Theirs are usually about 75% average!  They have 13.7 in book per share.  Earnings this past year were down 8%.  Last five years were up 9% per year.  Book value per share growth is a negative 12%.  Their margins look healthy at 19.3.  They have a ton of debt at 241.63%.  Return on equity this year is at 90%!  It makes sense, they leveraged themselves to reduce outstanding shares by 50%.  So what’s the valuation?  Buffett sees growth that I don’t I guess.  They had to buy up those shares or their EPS would be terrible.  I don’t think they get me where I want to go.  I’d buy them for 50 per share.  UPON FURTHER REVIEW, they sell for 130.03; EPS 14.577; Dividend is a high 5.2, about 37% of their earnings this year.   So we’ll say their return on equity figures will be 30 moving forward, well compound things at 21: thus we’re talking book of 92.17.  And thus we’re talking eps of 27.6…which looks high, but Is actually lower than earnings growth over the past 9 years.  With 10 and tax that dividend is at 47.  Assuming an extremely low p/e of 10, the price would be 276 plus our 47 in dividends, and thus a value of 323.  That’s a nice dividend, but I think they are overvalued.  I’d pay 100.

MSFT-MICROSOFT CORPORATION-sells at 50.99.  Everyone’s going crazy with their cloud platform.  They have a 407b cap.  They have a 34.22 p/e.  Thy have a  1.44 dividend.  Analysts are low neutral.  Book is at 9.7 per share.  Forward growth is projected at 9.13.  This coming year has high expectations.  Book growth over the past 5 years is at 11.64.  Return on equity is at 14.46.  Debt is at 35.92.  EPS is at 1.49, and thus that dividend looks huge.   With 10 and tax, that dividend is at 13.42.  That book of 9.7 will grow to approx., 15.8.   Thus their EPS will be 2.37, and with a more reasonable p/e of 20, that puts that share price at 47.4 + that dividend.  This stock is over,over bought.  I’d pay 18.

The dow is down 500 points today.  Everything is on sale!  But not these stocks.

DIS-WALT DISNEY CO-Selling at 93.99 today.  Analysts love it.  Kids love it. ESPN has been having trouble for whatever reason.  They have 26.19 in book, with price to book of 3.66 or so…looks like less than that. Book value per share growth last 5 years is 3.48…not so great.  Earnings growth next 3-5 is 12.63.  This coming year looks good.  They are so big though, that even star wars barely moves the needle.  I really think there are a lot of synergies in terms of what Disney does.  Kid’s are CRAZY about disney and their videos and products.  Adults are even into it.  Return on equity this year is 18.5  Return on investment is 12.77. 29% debt to equity.  One of the best brands in the world: #11.  Can they continue their growth?  Compounded earnings growth for the past 9 years is about 13.79%.  Historical return on equity is in the 16-17 range.  This stock is priced too high.  I’d buy them for like 50.  And that is being very generous.  If I paid 75, I’d be in the speculative range.  Note: back in 2013, I picked up 25 shares of disney at 48.98.  These appear to be fairly valued, we’ll see.  UPON REVIEW, they are now selling for 93.9.  EPS is 4.9.  Dividend is 2.84,  and that’s 58% of the earnings.  After 10 and tax, dividend would be something like 24.86.  With historical return on equity at 17 and only 42% of that going to book growth, we’re looking at book growth of 7.14, we could see book of 52.2, and thus EPS of maybe 8.87 and with a p/e of say 18.77, we’d see a price of maybe 166.56 plus that dividend of 24.86 for a value of 191.42….that’s a sad 7.38 in growth.  And thus if we could bring the price to 45 or 46 I’d be a strong buy.  5o works for me.

V-VISA INC  sells for 71.53.  Market cap is 179.3.  They are crushing amex right now and taking all their business.  P/E is 28.  Book value is 12.26 per share.  Projected earnings growth next 3-5 is 16%.  Next year is 16.32.  Return on equity is 22.  They have no debt?  That might not be accurate. Analysts are neutral.  Going back to 2006.  Earnings were compounded at a 26% rate?  What?  Lately return on equity in the low 20s but a fair average would be about 15%.  This stock is priced too high in my opinion even considering the lack of debt.  I’d but em for 40.  UPON REVIEW, they are selling for 71.83.  EPS is 2.57.  Dividend is .56.  With 10 and tax, that would be about 4.9.  That dividend is about 22% of earnings.  S0 we’ll say that the company reinvests 17% of earnings, and thus we’ll se book of 58.93 in 10 years, and thus EPS of 12.96 and with a historical p/e of 22, we’ll see a share price of 285.22, plus that 4.9, for a value of 290.12.  I think this stock looks good.   I want a discount.  I’ll buy at 70.

UPS-UNITED POSTAL SERVICE-Analysts are bearish.  They are selling at 89.4, near their 52 week low.  They have a 3.2% dividend and a P/E of 20.95.  They have a cap at 81b.  They have book of 2.16 per share.  WOW?  Earnings growth is projected at 10 for 3-5 out.  Book value growth lately is -22.44 percent.  Return on equity is 202%?  Kinda makes sense when they have 520.68% debt to equity!  Wow these guys must be building infrastructure and taking loans to buy stock.  Return on equity is historically huge like in the 50-100 range.  Earnings compound at 5.28.  This stock will grow, but I’d rather just get a job on the sorting line than buy their uber-leveraged business.  Using an insane equity return figure of 50%, it wouldn’t make sense to buy the business at anything more than 30.65.  That’s a lot of debt doood.  Maybe there is more here than I know, I know there is.  This stock just doesn’t make sense.  REVISITED:  They are now selling at 90.04, they’re sorta near their 52 week low.  P/E is now 20.70.  Dividend is 2.92.  EPS is 4.349.  Dividend is at 67% of the earnings, so with a return of equity like 50, we’ll say that 33% of that gets reinvested, we’ll have book of 9.95.  With tax and ten, we’ll have a dividend of about 25.21.  And so with a return on equity of 50!, we’ll have EPS of 4.9.  But then, to be fair, return on equity would be more fairly stated at 66, and that would give us book of 15.5, and thus EPS of 10.23…which seems reasonable.  And with a p/e multiple of 29 on average, we would see a share price of 296.67…WOW…on the low end, we could see a price of 204.6 if we used a 20p/e  So including the 25.21, we may very well see 229.81 on the low end, 321 on the high end.  That’s 9.82 on the low side and 13.56 on the high side.  They have a ton of leverage, but I’d buy them at 80 and down.

FDX-FEDEX CORP-selling for 127.04 after a 3.54% haircut today.  Analysts are milquetoast.  P/E of 33.86.  Small dividend at .76.  Book per share is 54.39.  Earnigns growth this past year was a -52.  Projected earnings growth is at 12.93.  Book value growth per share is at 1.6%.  Return on equity this past year is 7.29.  56% debt to equity…lots better than UPS.  Earnings growth is sorta unimpressive: 5.26 compounded over the last 9 years.  Return on equity is in the 17.% average range.  with some down years.  Looks like a good company, with pretty good growth.  This is a smart play when it comes to the future of consumer goods/transport, and I want  exposure to this area of growth.  I just think they are overpriced.  Too many people on this bandwagon.  I’d pay like 60-75.  UPON FURTHER REVIEW:  They are sellin at 126.92.  They are down 27% on the year, essentially at their 52 week low.  P/E is 32.63.  Dividend is 1.  EPS is 3.889.  Dividend is about 25% of earnings.  With ten and tax,  we’ll have about 8.75.  We’ll use 15% as a reasonable return on equity, and say 11.25% reinvestment…which is conservative.  We could see book of 157.95 and EPS of 23.69, and with those huge P?E figures, we could see 473.8 with a 20 p/e.  And thus we could see a 14.29 growth rate at current prices.  My price point 120 and under.

I had a price alert on Western Digital, and I bout 20 shares at 46.44.  Could go down short term.  But we’re looking at outrageous value here.  Stock has been kicked around by the market.

FRGI-FIESTA RESTAURANT GROUP INC is getting a little love because of Chipotle’s fall I think.  They are selling at 36.25.  They have a 996m cap.  8.81 in book value.  Earnings growth has loft expectations of 20% moving forward the next 3-5 years. With 80% growth predicted in teh next year.  Return on equity is 17.79.  Debt to equity is 30.08%…not bad for a small cap.  Their growth is fueled by their earnings.  Book value growth over the past five years is 28.8%?  Wow.  Looks like they went public in 2010.   Growth rate looks good at 17 or so percent over the past five yearsish.  Return on equity is awesome at mostly 20ish, with some drops and spikes. I don’t know if their food is actually good.  It looks like people expect a lot of growth out of this company.  My coupon analysis gives them a value of about 13.48.  Given their high growth rate, I can only, when fudging, give them a value of 20.27.  I’ll set my price alert for 21.  UPON REVIEW, EPS is at 1.44.  No dividend.  They have that 25.72 p/e.  Let’s say that book is worth 45.3 in 10 years, they’d be looking at 8.05 in EPS.  And with their current valuations, that would put them at a price of 201.25…with a 15p/e we’d be looking at a price of 120.  On the low end, we’re looking at 12.72.  On the high end,  18.7.  I’d buy if they came down to 30.  Staggered price points at 30, 31 and 32.

The stock market shot right up today…so none of my price alerts were activated.  JPMorgan announced great earnings, and Williams Companies went up by ~30%.  We are certainly dealing with a volatile market, and I’m waiting for my discounts.

MEG–MEDIA GENERAL, INC. operates tv stations in the US through digital and broadcast segments…They operate 71 stations.  Analysts hate it.  They have 11.08 in book per share.  They seem to be losing equity and not earning.  They also have 158% debt to equity.  This company doesn’t have the consistent earnings and predictable earnings.  Have to pass.

PSX-PHILLIPS 66  is a favorite of Buffett’s.  The are trading at 79.28 per share.  Analysts love it.  Buffett says he likes the management more than the business.  P/E is 8.77.  Book per share is 43.48.  Book value growth per share for the last 5 years is negative.  Earnings growth of 7% is expected in the next 3-5, but down this coming year.  This company could be a good contrarian position given the oil price issue.  They have .38 debt to equity.  They have a return on equity of 21.25.  They are a commodity business that is well run.  They have spotty earnings…to a degree due to the oil issues.  Their historical return on equity could be approximated at 19.  I’d buy them at 61.05, maybe 65.  I’ll put an alert out there for 65. UPON FURTHER REVIEW, they are trading for 78.47. P/E is 9.15.  Dividend is 2.24.  EPS is 8.575.  After 10 and tax, we’re looking at 20.43.    As far as growth on book, we’re looking at with what I would call 14% return on equity.  So we’d have 161.19 in book, an with a 10 for p/e, EPS of 22.56 would give us a share price of 225.66 plus 20.43 in dividends.  We’re looking at a 12.11 rate of return at present levels.  I pretty much stick to my guns on the 61.05 and the 65.

MDLZ–MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC….we have snack foods and beverages here.  They probably would be wise to spin off some of their subsidiaries…or to do something.  Analysts are dour.  They are selling at 41.36.  Their book price is 18.77 per share.  Book value growth is a negligible 1.4%.  Long term earnings growth are at about 9.52.  Return on equity is an unreasonable 31.82 this past year.  Return on investmnet is 17.  They seem to be well run given their limitations and size. They have 43% debt to equity.  Earnings are lagging.  Insignificant growth.  If I use 20 as a return on equity figure, I would say they’d be reasonably priced at about 28.67.  I’ll set an alert for 30.

ARII-The eponymous AMERICAN RAILCAR INDUSTRIES INC.   They sell at 40.40.  They are up 20 percent off their 52 week low.  Analysts are neutral, and they definitely have a commodity type business.  Icahn is an owner. P/E is 7.11.  Book per share is about 25.73.  Earnings per share are a rocky 13.84 for this year’s projection.  Growth for the next 3-5 is a guess.  Book value growth per share is abut 8%.  Their Return on equity this year is allegedly 23.  They have 113% debt to equity.  Their earnings are greatly impoved over the last five years compared to the previous.  Their annual compounded earnings growth rate is like 16%.  I think they would be a good buy at about 39 but better at 35.  That being said they are a commodity business.  UPON REVIEW, they are now trading for 40.88.  They have a 7.26 p/e.  Dividend is 1.6.  EPS are 5.63.  Dividend is 28% of earnings approx.  After 10 and tax, dividend is about 16.34.  With that return on equity of about a safe 12, that puts future book at 79.91 and thus EPS at 13.58 and thus, with a p/e of 8, a price of 108.67 plus those dividends, the return would be 11.83.  I’ll buy at a point of 31 or 32.

WDC-WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION-a commodity business.  Selling at 52 week lows, down from a high of 111.  Barrons mentions them as a company ready to rebound. Analysts love em.  They have a 11.58 cap.  Book value is 40.42. Earnings growth next year is supposed to be good.  Coming off of a bad year.  Earnings are projected to grow at 7 percent over next 3-5.  Book value growth per share over last 5 years is 14.38.  Return on equity is a reasonable 14.38.  They have 22% debt to equity. Rate of investment is 1%  Compounded earnings growth rate is 15.62%.  Return on equity is sometimes huge but sometimes in the 14ish range.  I think 17.5 should be the average.  I’d give em a price of 49.93.  I’d buy em at 47.  And that’s my price point.  UPON REASSESMENT: I bought 20 shares.  And now they are trading at 47.24.  They have a 2 dividend.  5.62 EPS.  P/E of 8.41.  Let’s say that rate of return, given dividend, is at .65×17.5, that gives us book of 121.67 and a return on that equity being EPS of 21.29 and thus a potential share price of 191.61 (with a 9 p/e) and plus the dividend,  17.51 after 10 and tax, and we are looking at a value of 209.12.  Bingo, we have an acceptable rate of return.  I’m gonna keep buying these shares

GOOG-ALPHABET INC-Selling at 714…near 52 week high.  Analysts are positive.  Cap is 246b.  P/E is 33.89.  Five year p/e average 28.2.  Book value per share is 169.03.  EPS growth past 5 years is 14.71.  Forward EPS is 3-5 years.  Book value per share growth past five years is 23.75.  I believe this is a great company, but I question sometimes unprofitable expenditures and development projects.  Return on equity is 13.8  They have no real debt.  They don’t pay a dividend.  Their compounded earnings growth rate is about 18.61. Sorta similar to their return on equity average historical figures.  I’d buy them at $450.  I doubled their book and used their earnings growth figure…and then was generous. UPON REVIEW, 694.45 is their current price.    P/E is 33.46.  I view them as far less speculative than facebook or amazon or Netflix, btw.  They pay no dividend.  Let’s call their return on book 16, that wold put their book at 745, and then with and EPS of 119, and with those crazy valuations of 33 p/e, the stock would be worth  3,927 or with a p/e of 15, that’s 1785.  On the low, conservative end, I’d have to agree with the 450 price point.  On the high end, we’d be looking at huge growth.  In actuality, could someone outdo google if we gave them 239b?  I’ll give them a bump.  I’ll buy at 600 and price points at 650 and 550.

FOX-TWENTY FIRST CENTURY FOX INC-They are 20% off their 52 week low.  They are selling for 26.77.  They had a 4% bounce today.  Analysts are neutral.  Earnings growth compounded rate is about 3.4? percent? P/E is 6.88.  Book per share is 7.73.  Earnings per share growth last five years was good.  Book value growth per share is negative.  Long term growth shows high hopes.  Return on equity is like 45% this year? 122% debt to equity.  Lately its been a great return on equity, but if you go back 5 years…not that great at 10,11,12.  I’ll call it 19%, and I’m sure this includes buybacks.  I’d buy em for 11.  UPON REVIEW, they are selling for 26.17.  P/e is at 6.94.  They have a dividend that pays .6 per year.  With ten and tax, dividend is at 5.25.  With a return of equity, that I’ll call 10, that puts their book at 20.05.  and thus EPS OF 2.4 and thus a share price of  20.40, given a p/e of 10, plus dividend of 5.25.  I’ll reiterate my 11 price point.

NSR-NEUSTAR-They got half of their earnings from one contract…and they lost the contract.  They are a short target because not enough people know or something.  Haha check out this article.  I think I could get a 50% gain cuz they are gonna TANK.

 

I’ve spent a considerable amount of time over the last couple days foraging for companies that meet my requirements for good earnings growth, good return on equity, low price to book values, low earnings multiples, selling for cheap.  I’m looking for predictable earnings.  I’m looking for good prices.  I’m looking for value.  I suppose I’m thinking about what Warren Buffett might think.  I’m thinking about the general attractiveness of the companies.  I’m thinking quantitatively and qualitatively.  Very few of these stocks come close.  Only a couple meet my requirements…even considering the brutal 2016 market downturn.  Expected stock price increases are not enough.  Beating the Dow isn’t enough.  I need to significantly beat the Dow to make investing worth my time.  So the expectation is to beat the Dow on average by 10%, to beat the Dow soundly during down years, and to keep up during bull years.  I’m using one analysis here, and I’ll always reserve the right to reconsider when I have more quantitative tools at my disposal.

JPM-JP MORGAN CHASE AND CO–Closed today at 57.34.  P/E is 10.06.  P/B is 1.01.  Book per share is allegedly 66.75. Revenue is down from last year.  Book value grows at 6%.  Growth is expected at 8%.  Return on equity is allegedly 10%.  They have 145% long term debt to equity.  They are a great bank and a great business.  Their figures are a bit misleading…maybe book value per share is out of date?  (I see I was right…book value is more like 57/share). Historical return on equity, if I’m generous, is at an average of 8 for the last 10 years.  Growth is OK.  I’m not aware of a catalyst to make em’ spike.  If I use the equity as a bond calculus book value is 57, growth rate of 9, splitting the difference between historical and current return on equity, in 10 years book value may very well be 134.94 per share.  In order to get a 15% return based on current share price, I’d have to pay  a price of 56/share.  Also need to take into account that these figures are somewhat skewed by the fact that banks need a ton of equity and by the fact that banks have their hands tied on their investments.  I think Jaime Dimon is great.  Chase took a lot of stress on their shoulders in 2008.  Short interest is at .78.  I don’t like how much Jamie Dimon gets paid though…north of 20m.  I put an alert down for the price of 55.  It looks like a long term buy and hold.  UPON REVIEW: P/e is 9.52.  Dividend is 1.76 per share.  EPS is at 5.99.  Dividend is at about .29% of EPS.  Dividend would be at about 14.12 after 10 years.  With that r on e of 8 and with a book of 57, we’d be looing at a book of about 99 per share in 10 years (using 5.68 as our growth rate).  And thus we’d have EPS of 7.92.  And thus a share price of, maybe 80.  Plus that After tax dividend of 14.12.  We’d be at a 5.13% rate of return.  With this math, they’d have to come down to 23 for my 15%.  I’ve been pretty conservative here.  On the high end, we’re looking at 123 of book, and thus 9.84 EPS x p/e of 10: thus a price of 98.4 plus the dividend.  On the high end, I’d need to have a price of 27.

WMB-WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC-this is an energy company…and their stock has been tanking for the past few days.  Things are bearish for them in a big way but why?  They dropped 17% today.  Their stock price is at 13.61. P/E is 36.76.  Price to book is 1.53.  Book value is allegedly 9.86 per share.  Looks like their earnings sucked big time in 2015 down 82% from the previous year. Earnings are subject to high hopes for the next year at 67.12.  Book value growth has been stagnant .  Return on equity this past year is 4%?  They have 295% debt to equity.  Historical return on equity is pretty spotty…big fluctuations from -14 to 30…I wouldn’t feel comfortable going anything more than 12 as an average.  Reasonable price would be something like 12.  And they are in that range, but what’s the deal here?  It looks like there is a question over a merger with Energy Transfer Equity.  It looks like the market is freaking out over cheap oil and stagnant manufacturing growth.  This stock is getting killed.  They also just had a reduction in credit worthiness to Ba1..junk status.  So doesn’t sound like they’ll be able to get a loan to buy ETE.  Looking at their earnings history they are really in the dumps.  Oh, wow.  It looks like that ETE deal fell through because they couldn’t get the financing….they’ve been in a tailspin since the merger fell apart.  It looks like Williams has a 30b backlog in business, and it looks like the merger was going to happen at a value of 43b…Their current market cap is 12.4.  Going back, it looks like when this company got in some trouble way back, warren buffet gave them a loan.  It looks like the ETE deal may still be on the table.  So, their earnings are inconsistent; there may be an arbitrage opportunity…a significant one.  Well…it looks like there is some serious manipulation happening here.  This is not a long term value deal.  They are also clearly a commodity type business.  So it looks like they also have exposure to chesapeake 20% of their revenue…and looking at chesapeake…they are a trainwreck.  I’m looking right at the heart of this oil price crisis.  Chesapeake has like 850+% debt to equity.  They have like .3 price to book, but they are hemmoraging money, and can’t earn anything.  Chesapeake is going down.  BTW Williams has no serious short interest, and they have a 15% dividend?  Chesapeake’s short interest is 36%.  So the question is: do i speculate that the super cheap Williams Companies will put out of this tailspin and (a) get acquired, (b) count on it’s sheer outrageous value to pull through the tide?, or do I say nope?  This is a tough one.  I’ll watch.  I’ll put a price alert on for 10.  It’ll probably bounce up…but that would be speculation.  I’d buy as part of a group with a target of 1-2 years or 50.  UPON REVIEW, they are now selling at 16.1.  Short interest is at 1.6%.  P/E is now at 35.  Dividend is at 2.56.  (Given their Chesapeake exposure, I will reduce rate of returns by 25%.  Analysts are still bearish.  Book is at 9.86, for EPS of .46.  Earnings growth is supposed to be exponential.  Let’s see.  So their dividend after 10 and tax is at 22.  Book could very well be at 41.  And with a return of 5, their earnings could very easily be at 2.05…and so with their insane p/e of 30 less ten and thus 20, they could be valued at 40, plus that dividend (which according to my calculus, would need to be cancelled) at 62.  So, the deal is that if they can stay in business, they’ll give me a great return on equity…and probably even better than that short term given the arbitrage possibilities.  I’ll set a price point for their 52 week low of 12.77.  If they come back down, I’ll take the risk given the extreme value and the relative 16% dividend.

CMG-CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC-Now here’s a personal favorite of mine.  AWESOME product.  To my knowledge, the best fast food restaurant in the U.S.  They had almost 2000 stores as of the last annual report.  They are trying to open restaurants in other countries, and I think they worry about what their success with that endeavor will be?  What’s a Mexican Grill–they’ll say in Australia I guess.  They still have room to grow in America and Canada?  What’ll they call it in Mexico?  A Mexican American Grill?  Anyways, they’ve been clobbered by this ecoli/nonovirus scare.  Their earnings are down by half…justified?  Based on reason?  Ha.  Prolly not.  Market cap is 12.61.  P/e is 24.12.  Book value is something like 76.99 per share. Their stock bounced 6 percent today.  Long term earnings growth is expected to be 15…and I believe em.  Book value per share growth is 23.39. Return on equity is 24%.  They have no debt.  Their earnings estimates are down by like 50%…but they’ll come back.  So: going back to their book value 76.99, r on e is 24.  Their book value may very well be in the 661 range in 10 years, and in order for my share price to get a 15% return it would need to be in the 275 range.  I think their stock is gonna pop tomorrow.  I really do.  They are already starting on their media campaign.  I just think it would be speculative to buy their price for more than 350…and that’s probably giving them some serious lee-way.  Watch list at 400.  I’d go long.  UPON REVIEW,  this stock has shot up this week on people expecting the battered stock to rise up again.   They are selling at 475.94 now, with an 8.16 short interest.  P/E is at 28.4.  Currently that’s 16.72 EPS.   Earnings are gonna be down this year. Return on equity historically is like 23, but let’s give em a 25 haircut because of this ecoli business.     And so that gives them a book of 402, and EPS of 72.36.  And with that 20 p/e, that’s a share price of 1447.2.  That’s a 11.78 rate.   I stick by my presious assessment.  They’d be a good buy for 350.

UVE-UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC-These guys write some nasty policies and these guys are dicks to their insureds, or at least they are using all the most aggressive ways to keep their insured’s money in their pockets.  Analysts love it. Market cap is $755m.  P/E is 7.18.  Price to book is something like 2.1, which is high for insurance.  Book value is something like 7.94 per share.  Earnings growth is good…no estimate for next 3-5 years.  Book value growth is 12% per share.  Return on equity is 40.  Debt to equity is 8.6.  They have a share buyback program going on…I read one of their proxy statements yesterday.  They have a compounded earnings per share growth rate of a whopping 23.12 percent!  Wow.  Nice company.  Consistenly high return on equity.  Let’s go with a 23 percent rate for our equity coupon calculations.  It looks like $25 per share would be a great price for this company.  This company is a buy.  They also have a 2.44 percent dividend. There is also a 20% short interest?  What’s the deal with that.  Right now they are selling at 18.41 per share.  I’ll set an alert for 17.5.  These guys write homeowner polices in Florida?  Whoa…that’s something.  Wow 16.8 insider ownership.  I’m getting a discount in my opinion even if I buy it now…honestly I’m being greedy.  It would be bought as part of a group.  UPON REVIEW, they have a .56 dividend, and thus we’d be looking at 4.67 after tax and 1o.  EPS is 2.739.  Thus the dividend is at .2%.  There has been a lot of short selling interest.  And there has been a lot of fluctuation.  Rumors of CEO trouble and fraudulent claims practices.  Let’s say they grow their book at 12%, that gives them book of 24.66.  And I think this fairly accounts for risk of hurricanes.  That gives them EPS of 2.96.  and with P/e of 9, that’s a share price o 24.21 plus dividend of 4.67, we’ll call it 29. I’ll buy this junk at 10-12.

MKL-MARKEL CORP-a favorite of mine.  2.7% insider ownership.  11.7 cap.  P/E 23.92.  Analysts are severely bearish.  Book value per share is 551.63 price to book is 1.54.  Book value per share the last 5 years is 22.31. Return on equity last year was 6.5.  .29 debt to equity ratio.  Earnings growth next 3-5 is 10%.  Earnings growth for last 10 years doesn’t look impressive.  Return on equity is always something like 5 or6.  People have run this stock up too high.  If it comes down to 650 I’ll buy…and that’s with significant numbers fudging.  I’d go long.  No need to re review.  I agree with the price point.

BRK-BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-I’m looking at the B stock.  Analysts are neutral.  When Munger and Buffett pass away, the stock is gonna tank short term.  P/E is 13.94.  Price is 126.25.  Book value is about 100.72 per share.  Book value growth is at about 13%.  Earnings growth is an optimistic 8.8.  Return on equity is 9.3 this year.  Historically, actually kinda impressive.  Buffett says he’ll buy at 1.2 book value.  So, I’d pay 108 for this stock, even with the risk of Buffett/Munger demise.  I’d go long.

ABCW–ANCHOR BANCORP WISCONSIN INC-a weird business…unimpressive earnings, except every once in a while they post a quarter with extreme earnings.  Cap is 423.  Shares selling at 43.  Price to book is 1.45.  They are a little savings and loan in wisconsin.  They are weird and inconsistent.  I don’t think their earnings can be safely predicted.  Whoops looks like they are getting acquired at 48.5.  I don’t know when their close date will be…that could prevent this from being a profitable arbitrage.  Let’s see if it drops.  Price watch set for 35.  Don’t really like this stock though.

D-DOMINION RESOURCES-Eps growth 3-5 years 6%.  Book value growth last 5 years .65.  Return on equity 14.7%.  Price 69.  Book value 21.16.  I’d buy it if they were charging 40.  They are an energy producer/transporter. Part of a group.

VLO-VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION-they always pop on Graham stock screeners.  They have 44.14 in book per share.  They have a market cap of 34.2b.  Share price of 65.03.  Earnings growth projections are great like 11%.  Earnings this year were great.  Earnings are not predicted to be great this coming year.  Their stock is sucking cuz of this oil fiasco lately.  Book value growth per share is 7.  Return on equity is 23.  .34 debt to equity.  Looks like they are run well, but they are in a shitty cyclical business.  What does munger say?  Between good management and a shitty industry, it’s the industry that wins?  Analysts LOVE it. This company will survive the the oil downturn and they will cleanup when oil comes back.  Insiders are in on it.  Good return on equity.  I would feel comfortable giving it a 17% return…These guys must be engaged in share buybacks.  They are just a commodity producer.  I’d buy em at 55, and that’s my alert.  Maybe.  Part of a group.  UPON REVIEW, they pay 2 in dividends. P/E is at 7.  EPS are 9.54.  After 10 and tax, 17.51 in dividend.  Let’s say they grow their book at 13.6, we could be looking at book of 190.3-less 20 for capital expenditures. We’d be looking at EPS of 28.9 for a share price of 202.  Plus 17.51 in dividends.  I’ll reiterate by 55 buy point.

INTC-INTEL CORPORATION-Price is 31.91.  Cap is 154.22b.  Price to book is 2.75.  Book is like 12.26 per share.  It would be foolish for me to guess at what the future holds for these guys.  I’m comfortable looking at them as a commodity producer.  Book value growth past 5 years is 6%.  Projected earnings growth 8%.  They are coming off a good year with 11% growth.  Return on equity last year was 20.34.  .35 debt to equity.  They pay a 2.94% dividend.  They are midway between 52 week highs and lows. Compounding earnings growth over the last 9 years is 11.17%.  Historical return on equity is awesome averaging like 19-20 over the last 10 years.  If they came down to 20, I’d buy and hold long.  UPON REVIEW, Boy o boy, they tanked on Friday.  They are selling at 29.76, with a p/e of 12.71 and EPS of 2.34.  They pay a dividend of .96.  Which is about 41% of earnings.  They are down 17.7 over the past 52 weeks and they are still above their 52 week low of 24.87.  After 10 and tax, we can expect a dividend of about 8.17.  And with their rate of return equity, accounting for dividends, we would be looking at say 38.08 and an EPS of 3.80.  And thus with that 12.7 p/e, we’d have a price of maybe 48.26 and the dividend of 8.17.  A lousy 6.61. I’ll keep my price poat 20, but it should really be at about 15.

EMR-EMERSON ELECTRIC CO-I have the lowest opinion of this company…always the cheapest products.  Is that based on reason?  Cap is 28.8.  Book per share is 12.34.  Long term growth is 6%.  Book value per share growth last 5 years is -3.7. Return on equity is a consistely high 30.  Historically sometimes a bit lower.  .5 debt to equity ratio. Earnings are sorta rocky, and they got hit hard by the recession. I would consider buying them at 28 for a pool of value companies.  UPON REVIEW, they have a huge dividend  1.88.  After 10 and tax, we could call it 17.51.  and that is a significan portion of the 3.99 EPS this year.  With a P/E of 10.  With that Return on equity in the 30 range, we can only compound equity at 53% of the 30, lets call their book in 10 54.5.  Let’s say they have a 30% return on that: we have EPS of 16.35.  And thus a price of 163.5 plus 17.51.  We have an actual contender here with growth of 15.43 Let’s see what do these people actually do.  I’ll increase their price point to 40, 38, 36, 35.

 

The power company with 90% of Koreas power market.

They came to my attention when I was using the finviz stock screener and playing with companies with low p/b, high returns on equity, and high future earnings growth. When you see the candidates, you’re bound to get either companies with inconsistent earnings, companies that have gone through a serious ringer, companies that are not understood or some mixture of all of these.

KEP sells at a p/e of 2.71. P/b is a laughable .49. Price is 21.32.

Their 2006 earnings per share were 1.83, with earnings being shown in only 2 quarters. (Maybe that’s some S.Korean thing)?

They’ve had some very spotty years since then. Some years wholly unprofitable. And 2015 seems like it was an albatross for them. Something like a 271% increase in earnings from the prior year, and a 51% decrease expected going into 2016.

Highly inconsistent earnings, but they are priced so dang low that their p\e next year would only be 5.

It looks like they are 97% government\other owned. They haven’t paid a dividend since 2013.

Going back a long way, it looks like this company has had several peaks and troughs.

I just don’t think they are a serious candidate based on their earnings. They are a damn government run utility, and there is no reason to think their value will be acknowledged. Earnings are too inconsistent. This company might be a nice thing for the people of South Korea, but it is not being run for the 3%.

UPON REVIEW, they are selling at 20.82. Analysts are very bullish.  There is no short interest.  No dividend.  p/e is 2.61.  EPS is 7.97.  .04 short interest.  This year earnings will tank, moving forward, they will grow.  They have 81% debt to equity.  Return on equity is high this year.  Historically it is very spotty, we’re talking about as low as -7 and as high as 50-60.  Let’s call it a spotty 7.  Book per share is at 42.81.  WOW.  Let’s say they mustered a 7% return on equity, and lets say that p/e is at 5 in 10 years.  That’s 84.21 in book and EPS of 5.89.  With a p/e of 5, that gives us a price of 29.45.   That’s a 3.53 return on equity.  They’d have to come down a lot to buy.  I’ll revise my price point to 7-8.

 

 

Amex has very consistent earnings, with the exception of the Costco related troubles. I suppose we don’t know where the earnings will go in the quarters to come. But long term…up.

Current price is $64.05. EPS is $5.53. P/E is at 11.38

That’s an 8.6% 1year rate of return.

So the question is: at what rate will those earnings grow? And what will my annualized rate of return be moving forward?

I could only quickly find info going back to 2006. Earnings in 2006 were 3/share and in 2015 for our purposes, earnings are 5.53 a share.  The rate of return on earnings growth is 7.03%over those 9 years.

Earnings in 2010 were 3.35/share and so the rate of return for the 5 years between 2010and 2015 would be 10.54%.

We could reason that if I bought Amex, I would be getting a 8.6% return and this rate of return would grow because per share earnings, aside from this Costco garbage, might very well grow at 7.03-10.54% per year.

Amex does have a ton of debt. 230% debt to equity.

P/E is 11.51, much lower that the 14.5 or so that was customary for the last 5 years.

Return on equity is more that 26%, and pretty consistently in the mid twenties for the past 10 years.

Since a low of about 10b in 2005 until about 21b as a present high, the rate of return was no slouch when accounting for dividends paid out. Per share this is about 7.7%.

Lets go with current book value/equity per share of 21.34. Assuming no dividends were paid, in 10 years we would have a whopping $198 per share in book value if we used a 25% return on equity…figures must be taken with a grain of salt…because dividends would be paid out…thereby reducing the equity base.

Because this figure is astronomical, it tells me that Amex must engage in share buybacks in a pretty serious way. And they must rejigger their return on equity figure in some other way…i.e. leverage.

So, assuming arguendo, that we used 198 as our projected book value per share in 2025 (and in reality it will be more like 40 something per share). I would need to buy shares at 48.94 per share to give me a 15% per year return.

Its a good business, but there is no reason to expect 15% per year growth. Pass. Buffett doesn’t buy more Amex for a reason.

Upon revision, dividend is about 1.16 per year.  Which is about 21% of the earnings per share.  So assuming we have 20% return on equity that is used for business purposes and/or reinvested, we’d be looking at a book value of 134.11.  And we’d have EPS of something like 30.82, and assuming a low p/e of 11, we’d be looking at a price of a rocking of 339.02 plus the dividend of of 9.8…we’d be looking at a huge growth rate, like 18.62.  Unfortunately, it’s forseeable that their earnings will be impacted to the tune of 20 percent because of Costco, and recent court rulings.  Let’s say we only grew the book at 16%.  That would put book at 95.55, so with a return on equity of 20, we could call their EPS would be 19.11 for a very conservative price of 210.21 plus those dividends of 9.8.  We’re looking at a great growth rate.  I’ll readjust my price point to a very conservative 55.5.  I’ll buy it up all day at that price.    We’ll see, I set staggered alerts.

According to Forbes, American Express is the 22nd most valuable brand in the world.  Buffett owns more than 15% of the company, and his ties and fondness are pretty well documented. (It seems like every other speech that he and Munger have given for the past 50 years has involved some reference to the vegetable oil scandal.  Munger even recently talked about how Valeant is NOT like Amex was in the 60s).  My point is Amex has street cred.

It is taking major heat (1) they recently lost the merchant rules antitrust lawsuit (now merchants can apparently put up signs saying they prefer visa or mastercard because of Amex’s higher fees); (2) they lost the Costco co-branded business; and (3) they lost the Fidelity co-branded business.  The Costco loss seems like it was a big issue, Fidelity not so much.

The Amex earnings are really going to be hurt in 2016 because of the Costco issue, but the antitrust issue doesn’t seem like a company crippler (even though I read a press release from Kenneth Chennault saying it was just that).

I read somewhere (maybe it was a Graham writing) that lawsuits are never as bad as they seem when you are on the receiving end, and never as profitable as when you are on the prosecuting end.  I can attest to this as a trial lawyer.

Even with the earnings hit, Amex’s earnings are still strong.  They are spending tons of capital trying to snag another big fish, another Costco.  Although their offshoot ventures, i.e. Bluebird, etc. seem, well, kinda lame.

Overall, its an awesome company with an awesome history.  Personal experience says that they are the best and they know it.  Even their employees are positive about their company…seems that way anyway.  Unfortunately they are embattled right now.

Visa is pac-maning their co-branded partnerships, and their customer base is completely dwarfed by visa and mastercard.  Then again business owners, execs and high net worth customers know Amex is the best.

Qualitatively, Amex is great.  They will continue to be great.

 

Ok. On a macro level, there is a lot of instability in the global economy.  More than usual?  What are the causes?  I guess China and their slowing growth, perhaps a lack of overwhelming growth in the US, coming off a long bull market, instability in Europe, a pricey dollar, pessimism.  There’s a lot more.  Which of these fears are based on reason?  Can the outcome of these ongoing concerns be predicted.  It seems like a lot of smart people who are paid to have opinions have opinions on these issues, and a few of the smartest people wont publicly venture their guesses.

What is reasonable is that there are arbitrage opportunities that provide investment grade profit opportunities; there are real companies out there earning real money; there are bonds that have real coupons.

My purpose here is to look at different investment opportunities and to provide an assessment, and, ultimately, to show the math in making the decision to purchase a security v. another security or not.

Some stocks will need to be purchased in a pool.  Some will be purchased with the intent to hold long term, maybe forever.  I’ll think through some shorts but we’ll see if I pull the trigger on any.  I’ll assess arbitrage opportunities and workouts, etc.   I might get involved a bit but because I’m only working with my own funds, and thus limited funds, it might not be worth the effort.

That being said 2016 is off to a very rocky start, so it might make sense to focus a bit more on bonds, arbitrage and workouts because generally when the market has a bad year the value pools that I intend to buy are not going to be fairly valued.

Well see.  I wish myself good luck.