CAR-AVIS BUDGET GROUP INC-Selling at their 52 week low of 25.23, they are down 58% on the year.  Short interest is 21.48%.  P/E is at 7.81.  Cap is 2.53b.  EPS would be about 3.23. Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 5.94 per share.  EPS growth this year is supposed to be at 12.3.  In 3-5, 17.3  Book is growing at 24.54.  Return on equity is at 57%. Debt is insane at 2250% to equity…makes sense given their industry.  No dividend.  Earnings look pretty consistent with one huge quarter per year.  Return on equity is like 25 on average.  So let’s say book is at 36.78 with 20% return on equity, we could be looking at EPS of 7.356, and with a p/e of 10, we could see a price of 73.56.  I’d buy em at 18.  They are a risk.

HTZ-HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC-Trades at 9.72, their 52 week low.  P/E is non existent.  Cap is 4.32b.  Short interest is at 7.27.  Analysts are very bearish.  Book is at 5.27.  Growth this year is at 46%.  Next 3-5 is at 25%.  Book growth is at 3.4 last 3-5.  No dividend.  Return on equity is at a negative figure.  Debt is at 710.39.  Insiders own 4.3. Return on equity is at wacky figures, I’ll call it 0.  We’ll go with a 2% growth figure here, with a 25% pop.  That gives us book of 6.42, and perhaps EPS of 1.28, and with a 10 p/e we can see a price of 12.8.  I’d buy at 3.15.  I’m sure this stock will pop, but whatever, they are hugely speculative.

 

I did a screen today for stocks with p/e under 30, EPS over 5 next 5 years, RonE of +15, Debt to Equity of under .5, EPS this year over +5, Earnings growth next year of over +5, EPS growth past five years of over 5.

These should be consistent earners.  They mostly look like steady industries that would be hard to undermine.

ASML-ASML HOLDING NV-Price is at 77.47.  They are at their 52 week low.  They have a 1.21% short interest.  Dividend is at 3.04 per year.  EPS is at about 3.66.  P/E is at about 21.95.  Dividend yield is a huge part of earnings.  Let’s say they use 17% of earnings to reinvest.  Book is at 21.  Book value growth is at 29%.  Return on equity is at 17.28.  Debt is at 14.36.  This company is the largest provider of photolithography systems.  They are a commodity producer.  With 10 and tax we have a dividend of 26.14.  Historical return on equity is spottyish Fairly averaged at 17%.  So their book would hypothetically grow at 5%.  For book of 34.21 in 10.  For EPS of 5.81 and thus a price of maybe 116 given current p/e plus that dividend of 26.14.  That’s a measly 6.28 percent.  I’d buy if they came down to 35.

BWA-BORGWARNER INC-Selling at 30.29, their 52 week low.  They have a cap of 6.96.  Dividend is paid at .52 on the year.  P/E is at 11.3.  There is a 5% short interest.  Analysts are bullish.  Earnings are boring.  Minimal growth over past 10.  Book is at 16.58 per share.  EPS growth is projected to be good with 9.31 over next 3-5 and 14.43 this coming year, coming off a bad year though.  Book growth is at 10%.  Return on equity is at 17.19.  Debt to equity is at 40.71.  EPS this year will end up being about 2.98 going forward.  That dividend is thus about 17% of the EPS. We’ll say they’ll grow book at 14.11.  With tax and 10, dividend comes to 4.09.  Book comes to say 61.47, and with a return of 17, we have an EPS of 8.6, and thus a share price of apporox 86 with a 10 p/e.  and with that 4.09, we have say 90 in value.  I can see this company facing headwinds as well.  I can buy em at 22.

CSCO-CISCO SYSTEMS INC-Selling at 23.62, their 52 week low.  P/E is at 12.7.  Dividend is at .84.  EPS would be approx 2.09.  Short interest is low.  Cap is at 119.9b.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book is at 11.8.  Earnings growth is expected at approx 9.4, but only 5.7 this coming year.   Return on equity is approx 16.23.  They have 33% debt.  Earnings growth is at about 7.37 compounded.  With tax and 10 we have a dividend of 7.  We have about 60% of our EPS going towards growth conservatively.  So we’ll say we’ll grow book at 10%.  Thus we could see book at 30.61, and thus EPS of 5.2, and thus a share price, with a more reasonable p/e of 15, of 78 plus 7 is 85 or so in value.  That’s a good growth rate.  They are potentially a buy. Return on equity is pretty good. 17 is fairish for my rate.  I’ll buy.

DRAD-DIGIRAD CORPORATION-Price is at 5.07.  These guys are trading 26% up on the year.  They have a p/e of 4.57, and they pay a .2 dividend.  EPS is something like 1.1.  Cap is at 98.4m.  Analysts are pretty dang bullish.  Book is at 2.81.  Projected grwoth is at 70% this coming year, no forecast for 3-5 out. Book has been shrinking at 7.95.  Cash is going down.  Return on equity is at 54.91.  They have no debt.  This company was kinda suffering from earnings decay going back 5+ years.  And now they are more consistent.  Historical return on equity is at like an average of say 5, but they have really huge and really bad years.  Going back through news reports, they recendly announced they were acquiring DMS Health technologies.  We’ll see something like 1.75 in dividends.  Let’s say they reinvest 80% of EPS, and they grow at 5% conservatively, that would give us book of say 4.16 in 10 years and say EPS of a magical 2 that year.  With a 5 p/e we could see a price of 10 + that dividend of 1.75 for 11.75 in value.  That’s only 8.7%, and plus its going to be a very bumpy ride…And people accuse this company of fueling their growth by acquisitions.  I would buy em at 2.9.  I’ll put an alert down for 3.

EA-ELECTRONIC ARTS INC-They are up 41% for the year.  P/E is at 26.42.  no dividend.  Cap is now 20.53b.  Short interest is at 6.74.  Things are bullish with the analysts.  Book is 10.12 per share.  Earnings are expected to be awesome in the next year and the next 5 years.  Book is growing at 2.15.  Return on equity is at 27.5  No debt.  Going back 10, earnings are upward trending but sorta spotty.  These guys make titles like Fifa, Madden, NHL, NCAA Football.  Battlefield, Sims, Crysis, Dead Space, Mass Effect.  Bioware.  They have really good quarters and really bad quarters.  a fair average would probably be about 10% per year.  So let’s say book is 26.25 in 10, and they have EPS of say 2.625 v. 2.5 for current EPS.  I think I was probably conservative in my growth figures, and I didn’t property account for their BIG years.  But that being said, they are allegedly hated in the gaming community because they have a lesser product by perception.  So let’s say they have EPS of 10 in year 8, that woudl give us  a huge share price of 220.  Currently trading at 66.06.  That would give us a return of about 12.78. I’ll let these guys come down.  I’ll by some at 54.  We’ll see.

HSIC-HENRY SCHEIN INC-Currently sells for 146.72.  P/E is at 25.74.  Short interest is at 3.57.  Cap is 12.17b.  These guys provide healthcare products.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 35.25 per share.  No dividend.  Earnings growth this coming year is at 11.28.  3-5 11.28 percent.  Book is growing at 5.41%.  Return on equity is at 16.99.  They have 20% debt.  These guys are ranked as one of the most admired companies.  Return on equity is a very steady 16-18%.  Earnings are like clockwork.  I like this company.  Earnings growth is at 12.61 compounded.  I think it would be hard to keep that up.  But lets say they grow their book 10.  We’d have book of 91.43.  And with a 18 percent return we’d have  EPS of say 16.45.  And with a p/e of 22, we’d have a price of 362.  That’s a pretty good 9.51 growth rate.  I’ll set my price a bit lower.  This company is steady and thus overbought.  I’d buy em for 100 and some luck.

LCI-LANNETT COMPANY INC-Currently selling near their 52 week low.  P/E is at 8.57.  Short interest is at 25.37. Analysts are bullish.  Book is at 13.79.  Growth is 14 for this coming year.  EPS growth for next 5 is at 14.  Book growth is at 39 over the last 5. Return on equity is at 33.46.  .2% debt to equity.  OK, so what’s the deal with these guys.  Return on equity was spotty like 3-7 years back, but sometimes r on e is in the 25, 30+ range.  These guys market generic drugs.  Price is at 34.12.  EPS is at 3.98.  Here’s another company playing games with huge drug price valuations.   I’ve done a fair amount of research.  I can’t explain the short interest.  Seems like they made this acquisition and they’ve been hurt because acquiring this company decreases their earnings by 20%.  But then they paid in cash.  That’s what they’re doing with their book value.  They have a 1.25b cap.  I Think they could drop, sure.  But I think there is value play here.  Let’s say they grow book at 10%, that gives us a valuation of 35.77, and let’s say they give us a 20% year, that’s 7.154 in eps, and lets say, they trade at 10 p/e, that’s a price of 71.54.  That’s a rate of 7.68.  If we’re conservative, I put the stock price at 25…I think it could very well pop like 100%.  If we use 14% as our growth figure, that gives us book of 51.12, and thus EPS of 10.224 for a price of 100 ish.   I’ll stick with the 25 price point.

SAM-BOSTON BEER COMPANY INC- Selling for 164, they are at their 52 week low.  Cap is 2.12b.  P/E is at 22.07.  Book is at 38.11.  Short interest is at 11.04.  Analysts are neutral.  PES next year is at 12.62.  No estimate beyond that.  They’ve been growing book at 20%.  Return on equity is at 20.89.  No debt.  Earnings are pretty good, but a bit rocky…generally upward trending.  Return on equity is always at 20%.  Let’s go with a 12% rate of future growth on book, and we have 118.36, and with a 20% return we’ll get 23 EPS and with a 20 p/e, we could see a price of 460.  And that would be a return of 10.86.  If they came down to 120, I’d be OK.  But if they came down to 112, it would be a sure thing.  There is a significant arbitrage possibility here, in case of acquisition.

SNA-SNAP ON INC-Sells at 157.3.  They are up 18 for the year.  P/E is at 20.04.  Dividend is 2.44.  EPS is 7.83. Short interest is at 2.65.  Cap is at 9.13b.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 40.66.  EPS growth this year is at 12.1.  Fin the future it is hazy.  Book growth over 5 is at 11.35.  Return on equity is at 20.51.  Debt is at 38%.  With 10 and tax, we have a dividend of about 21.01.  Historical return on equity is like 18.  Wow, earnings grow like clockwork.  I have a bit of an understanding that this is a premium brand.  We have a possible growth rate of 12 on equity.  Thus we have a book of say 126.28, and we’ll call return on equity 18, and so EPS of 22.68, and with a multiple of 18, we’d have a price of 408 plus 21.01, a value of 429.25.  I’d be willing to buy at 105.

WSM-WILLIAMS SONOMA-They are selling at their 52 week low of 50.45.  Short interest is at 8.54.  P/E is at 14.84.  EPS are 3.4.  Dividend is at 1.4, and thus 41% of earnings.  Analysts are now bullish.  I know all ladies love Williams Sonoma.  Book is at 12.4 per share.  EPS is at 12.28 this coming year.  EPS in 3-5 is at 11.51.  Book growth is at .22.  Return on equity is at 27.07.  No debt.  With tax and 10, dividend is at say 12.84.  Earnings are good, and they always have that big quarter for Christmas.  Return on equity is fairly state at about 20.  They also own pottery barn, btw.  Let’s say they grow at only 10% now, but we keep that 14 p/e, we’re looking at book of 22.21, and say 4.44 in EPS and thus a price of 62.19 plus the dividend.  My price target will be at about 18 given the retailing headwinds and their stupid dividend.

COH-COACH INC-They are a bit above their 52 week low, at 31.43.  Cap of 8.72.  Short interest is at 5.85.  Dividend is at 1.348.  EPS is at 1.37. Analysts are very bearish.  They are coming off of negative growth, and they expect to turn it around this year and in the next 3-5 with 8.58 percent growth.  Book has been growing a 10.59.  Book is at 8.91 per share.  Return on equity is at 15.16.  Debt is at 26% of equity.  With tax and 10, dividend is at 12.26.   Earnings are spotty and down.  Historical return on equity is at like 20%.   Let’s say they can get 5% growth on equity going forward…cuz a that stupid dividend, we can say we’ll have 14.51 in book.  And let’s say they have an awesome year of 30% that year so EPS of 4.35.  and with a p/e of 15 that gives us a price of 65.3 and with that dividend, we have a value of 77.55.  I’d buy em at 20.

KORS-MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LTD-Selling at 35.57, essentially their 52 week low. P/E is at 8.35. EPS is 4.25  Short interest is at 8.4. Cap is at 6.55b.  Analysts are neutral.  No dividend.  Book is 10.24 per share.  EPS growth last 5 year is at 82.  Growth this year, 1.62.  3-5 is at 3.77.  Book growth is at 114.  Return on equity is at 40.82.  No debt.  Insiders have 3.3%.  Earnings have been great.  Return on equity is at like 40%, but let’s drop that to 20.  And let’s use a multiple of 10.  Book will be at 63.4.  EPS could easily be in the 12.68 range and thus a share price of perhaps 120.  I could justify the value play at 30.  I fear a decline in their brand loyalty and value.  Their stuff has always seemed kinda generic.   I’ll buy if they go to 30.

TIF-TIFFANY AND CO-Selling at their 52 week low of 67.65 They’ve performed poorly over the last year. 7.65 short interest.  P/E is at 17.66.  Dividend is at 1.2.  EPS is at 3.83.  Cap is at 8.67.  With tax and 10, dividend comes to about 10.5.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 22.26 per share.   EPS growth next 3-5 is 8.94.  This year, 11.31.  Book growth is at 8.53.  Return on equity is at 17.38.  Debt is at 27%.  Earnings are pretty upward trending.  Return on equity is fairly averaged at 14, and they use .69 of earnings to grow, so we’ll say book will grow at 9.66, and thus we have a price of 52.7, and with a return on equity of 17, we could see EPS at 8.9, and with a p/e, conservatively speaking of 17, we could see share price of 152 along with the 10.5 in dividends, for a value of maybe 162.5…a rate of 9.16.  I’d buy em at 40, and I’d keep em for a long time.

BKS-BARNES AND NOBLE INC- Sells at 8.2, their 52 week low.  They have an 8.52 short interest.  They pay a .6% dividend.  No P/E. Analysts are bearish.  Book is 7.7.  Earnings are expected to skyrocket in the next few years.  Book is actually growing.  Return on equity is, we’ll currently flat or slightly negative.  Debt to equity is at 32%.  Earnings truly suck, but that’s ok.  They look to have earnings of about .4, and thus they would be trading at a 21.3 p/e.  And their dividend is at 7.32.  Insider ownership is at like 23.9X .  Caap is at lie 627.05.  They survive on 1 quarter a year.  I’ll take a look if they come down to 6.

AMZN-AMAZON COM-Selling at 570.18, up from 286.39 the 52 week low.  P/E Is at 826.35, trailing 12 months.  no dividend.  Cap is at 267.28.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 26.5.  Earnings growth is expected to grow at insane levels.  Book is growing at 15.36%.  Return on equity is a meaningless 2.54, an debt is at 81.29.  These guys actually used to earn more per share.  I figure they are investing heavily.  Their figures are all over the place, but I’ll say 20% return on equity.  I suppose this accounts for pay offs from their investment.  I’m also interested in Amazon as a hedge against all other stocks!  Let’s say book is at 164.08.  And let’s say they they actually have earnings of 32.81 per share, but lets say that their valuation is at 50.  That would give us a price point of 1640.  For a rate of 11.15.  I’ll buy at 405 or lower.

HMHC-HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT COMPANY-Selling at 17.2, near 52 week low.  They have a 2.31b cap.  No dividend.  Analysts are bearish.  Book is 11.25.  Recent earnings are terrible, but this next year is gonna be big and then the’ll stabilize at 5. Return on equity is at 34.61.  Debt to equity is at 51.9.  This company has very spotty earnings.  They are not a buy candidate.

DVA-DAVITA HEALTHCARE PARTNERS INC-They are selling at their 52 week low at 66.47.  P/E is at 29.94.  No dividend.  EPS is at 2.22.  Cap is 14.03b.  Analysts are neutral to positive.  Book is at 23.65.  EPS growth is 8 this year.  EPS next 3-5 is at 12.35%.  Book value growth is at 19.35  Return on equity is at 9.54.  Debt to equity is at 181.99.  Historically EPS growth is at like 4.65 compounded.  Historical return on equity is safely averaged at 15.   I’m not so sure about the EPS figure I have above.  So let’s say book value is 80.28, we could see  EPS of 10.45, and thus a price of 229.6 with a reasonable p/e of 22.  If they come down to 57, I’d call them a buy.

PM-PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC-Selling at 86.29.  P/E is at 18.56.  Dividend is at 4.08.  With 10 and tax, we have 35.01 per share.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is 133.69b.  Book is at negative 8.77.  EPS next 3-5 is t 3.39.  Book growh last 5 years is down.  Return on equity is negative.  Debt to equity is at negative 189.86.  EPS is at 4.649.  So these guys are paying like 87 of earnings to dividends.  So let’s say they reinvest 12% of earnings.  Unfortunately, I can’t evaluate this company.

MO-ALTRIA GROUP INC-sells at 57.2. P/E is 21.42.  Dividend is at 2.24 EPS is at like 2.67.  Analysts are very bullish.  Book is 1.47 per share.  Book value is dissipating.  Return on equity is at like 186.57.  Debt is 467.57.  I don’t get these companies.  They have a big dividend.  They have huge debt.  There is no reason to think they we’ll actually grow.  Forget this garbage.

YUM-YUM BRANDS INC-P/E is 32.1 with a priceof 67.09.  Dividend is like 1.84.  EPS is at like 2.09.  Cap is at like 28.93.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is like 4.23.  Growth is expected at 9.87 forward.  Book growth is at about 8.58.  Return on equity is at about 56.  Debt is about 175.69%. I think EPS is probably mo4e like 3.19.  Which still puts the dividend at about 57% of earnings.  Return on equity is always high.  Average of 40 is fair.  So let’s say book grows at 17.2.  That gives us book of maybe 20.68 plus dividends after tax and n of about 15.64.  So we might see a 8.27 EPS, and thus perhaps a 165 price point plus the 15.64 for a value of 170.64.  That would give us, maybe, a return of 9.8.  I’d buy em at 42.  These guys are overbought.

BBY-BEST BUY COMPANY-Sells at 27.11.  They are at their 52 week low.  P/e trailing is at 11.3.  Dividend is at .92.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 13.48.  Cap is at 9.29.  Earnings are expected to grow at 8-9 in the next 3-5.  Book has been shrinking.  Return on equity is at about 17.85.  They have 27% debt to equity.  Earnings are going to dissipate things.  I can’t justify buying them.  There is just no way their gonna be doing better in 10 years.

SRCL-STERICYCLE INC-They are near their 52week low.  Selling at 115.16.  P/E is at 36.91.  Cap is at 9.79.  Analysts are neutral to negative.  EPS are probably more like 4.38.  Book is at 31.98.  Earnings growth moving forward is good.  Book growth is at 17.51.  Ebt is at 51.9.  Return on equity is at 12.65.  Historical average is like 17, conservatively.  So lets say they grow equity at 12.65…That gives us a book of 132.58 and EPS of say 22.53  at current, crazy valuations, that would give us a price of 675.  If we went with a p/e of 20, that would give us a price of 450.6.  That’s an EPS of 14.62 on the low side.  Huge on the upside.  I think this is a buy.  I’ll put a price point down for 111, 110, 109, and 112 for good measure.  They are selling low because of a recent acquisition.

SBUX-STARBUCKS CORPORATION-58.00 per share.  They’re up 45.77 this year, and word is that they are growing into china.  P/E is 31.87.  Cap is 86b.  Dividend is .8.  EPS is at 1.82.  Negligible short interest.  Analyst sentiment indicates they are overbought.  Book is 3.92 per share.  EPS growth next year is great.  Long term its 17.9.  Book growth is at 63% of hat equity figure. Return on equity is an awesome 47.2 .  Debt is at 37%.  Historical return n equity is fairly averaged at 25.  Divided is about 44% of earnings.  With 10 and tax, we’d be looking at 7.  Plus book would grow to maybe 16.92 per share, and the we could see a 4.23 EPS at that point.  With a more reasonable 23 p/e we’ could see share prices at 97.29 + that 7 in dividends for a value of 104.29, that’s a growth rate of 6.11. These guys are overbought.  I’d buy em at 30.

TRCO-TRIBUNE MEDIA COMPANY-been in the news a lot lately.  They have a lot of assets, but their core business sucks.  Selling at 31.45.  They are at about their 52week low.  They have a 3.29 short interest.  They pay a 3.18% dividend.  They have a P/E of 8.36.  Cap is at 2.96b.  Analysts are neutral/negative.  Book per share is at 45.67…properties.  Earnings growth moving forward is not even speculated.  Return on equity is at 8.  They have 80% debt to equity.  Since coming out of their bankruptcy?  their earnings have been spotty.  This is a value play…if any play.  With no earnings growth, i can justify paying like 15 bucks for them.

NKE-NIKE INC-Selling for 57.56.  They have a 98b cap.  There is a .7% short interest.  P/E is at 28.  Dividend is at 1.11%.  Analysts are bullish.   Book is only 7.85 per share.  Book growth per share is at 5.43 for past 5 years.   Earnings growth has high hopes at 12.62%.  Return on equity is at 28 percent this past year. Historically it is very very high, maybe 21-22 average.  Debt is at about 10%.  What can I say, they are a great company.  They are just too expensive.  Buying at 40 would be dangerous, given the earnings I want.  Upon review, dividend is at like .57 annually.  EPS is something like 2.05.  So lets say that return on retained equity is like 15…with a future value of 31.76 in book per share and thus earnings of something like 6.35 and thus a price of something like 95 (15p/e) or 152 (24p/e) plus those dividends maybe like $4.67 after taxes.  So, on the low side I’d be looking at 5.68% gain…and on the high end like 10.48%.  They are selling high.  I’ll keep the previous price point, but to get that 15% gain, I’d need to buy them at about 35.

MCD-MCDONALDS CORP selling for 115.18.  They had a great year, but now they are overpriced.  Short interest is at 1.11%.  Cap is at 105b.  P/E is at 24.88.  Dividend is at 3.09.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 9.05 per share.  EPS growth is expected to be 8.23 moving forward along with 10% this past year.  Return on equity is at like 41.  Debt to equity is at 151%.  Compounded earnings growth is at like 4.9.  So expected earnings growth of 8 is ok.  Their return on equity is always high, average of 25.  By any stretch, this stock is overpriced.  I’d pay 75.  Upon review, EPS is about 4.8 and of that .89 is paid as a dividend.  So their dividend is about 18% of their earnings.  So 3.91 is retained, and equity is increased and/or debt is paid from this.  So we could say that equity would be 39 in 10 years.  Return on equity is at 20%. Maybe 7.8 per share for a share price of about 156-187, plus all those dividends.  Maybe $11ish.  So if I bought them for 115: I’m looking at a pretty shitty gain.  Maybe 5ish%.  I think my 75 price point was generous.

KO-COCA COLA COMPANY- Selling for 41.5.  Their 52 week low is 36.56.  They have a 180b cap.  .71 short interest.  Dividend is at 3.18.  P/E is at 26.6.  Analysts are bullish for whatever reason. Book is 6/share.  Earnings growth is at like 2.85 moving forward.  Growth in book is at like 4.1%.  Return on equity is at 24.23%.  Debt to equity is at 99%.  Earnings are not really very steady.  Return on equity is always high cuz of that debt.  This company has headwinds with the shift to healthier diets that I anticipate.  I just don’t see people drinking sugar water in 10 years like they did 20 years ago. The stock doesn’t make sense when I want that 15% growth.  I could buy em at like 20.  Upon review, they have 1.56 in earnings per share.  And they pay out .33 in dividends.  So they reinvest and pay that debt with the remaining 1.23 per share.  They pay their dividend at about 21% of their earnings.  So let’s say their retained return on equity growth figure is more like 16%.  So lets say they have book of 34 in 10 years.  Their earnings figure could be 8.5 per share and given historical multiples between 15 and 25 for p/e: we’d be looking at a share price of 127 or 212.5 plus those dividends at like $3 bucks after tax.  So that’s an 11% gain per year up to a 17% after tax gain per year.  I’d look at the low side….and I suspect their figures are misleading.  I’ll revise my buy figure to 30.  I suspect they’ll be a laggard even at that price.  Old doods sure do like their dividends.

Bank stocks are clearly more attractive to value investors because of their book values.  The concern is their growth levels.

C-CITIGROUP INC-Selling at 42.47 they are at their 52 week low.   They have a 126b cap, and a .47% dividend. P/E is at 7.85.  Analysts are neutral/negative.  Their book is at 75.12 per share.  Earnings growth this year is at 4.55%.  Moving forward, growth is looking like 33%…right.  Book growth per share is at like 5.6.  Debt/equity is at like 98%.  Return on equity is at like 8%.  Compounded earnings growth rate is at like 2.76%.  Average return on equity is pretty fairly stated at about 4-5%.  If they were to grow at 5% per year, i’d buy em at 30.  If they were to grow at 8%, they’d be a good buy at 40.  I’ll put an alert down for 39.  Upon revision, maybe they pay 20cents a year in their dividend.   EPS are at like 5.41-less .2 is 5.21 per share in retained earnings.  It’s feasible that they have 153 in book per share in 10 years.  And so they’d be looking at earnings of 12.24 per share.  Plus another 1.75 per share in after tax dividend earnings.  With historically low multiples of 7.85, the stock could be worth 100 per share on that low multiple  which would be an 8.94 growth rate.  If we went with a p/e of 15 we’d be looking at our 15% growth rate.  I think its reasonable to have their price point at 39, but if we got down to 35, we’d be in great shape.

WFC- WELLS FARGO AND COMPANY-Selling at 48.82 just above their 52 week low of 47.75.  The stock is down over the last 52 weeks.  Cap is 249.36b.  Dividend is at 3.07.  P/E is 11.76.  Analysts are high neutral.  Book per share is at 37.93.  Growth going forward is a reasonable 9.59 per share. Past five years its been at 13.43.  This coming year expected to come in at 6.51.  Book growth per share is at like 7.79.  Return on equity is at like 12.65.  Debt to equity is at like 110%. Growth rate of earnings  is at like 5.84.  Historical return on equity is like 10+ on average.  I think they are a bit more consistent, maybe a bit better managed than Citigroup.  They cost too much I think.  I’m not going to get the kind of earnings i want from this bank, unless they really come down to like 25.  And they aren’t gonna fall by that much.  They have the dividend, so they are priced high.  Upon revision, EPS is at 4.15 and they  pay a dividend of about 1.5 per share.  So over 10 years, I might get after tax dividends of about 14 per share.  If we go with 66% of that averge return on equity figure of 11~, we’re looking at bookin 10 years of about 74.61, so earnigs of maybe 8.2 per share plus dividends of 14.  With a p/e of 11.76 maybe a price of 96.43 plus after tax dividends of 14.  We’re looking at a growth rate of 8.46%.  If we broght he price down to 35, the rate is at 12.13.  At these p/e’s we’d need the price to come down to 27 for our 15% return.  If we say a p/e of 15, we’d need the price to come down to like 33 per share.

FITB-FIFTH THIRD BANCORP-is near their 52 week low of 16.75, currently trading at 17.12. They have a cap of 13.6.  They pay a 3% dividend.  P/E is 10.31.  Analysts are very bullish.   Book per share is at 19.9.  Forward growth is expected to be in the 4.89 range.  This coming year is at 4.22.  They are coming off of negative earnings growth.  Book value growth over the past 5 years has been at 7.65%. Return on equity is like 9.49.  Long term debt to equity is at about 100%.  Earnings growth is kinda lame, spotty over the past 10 years for sure.  I think I can justify buying them at about 8-9.  Their growth kinda sucks.  Never know what they have in the works…I’ll do more due diligence if they come down to a better price.  Upon review, EPS is about 1.66.  Dividend is at about .52 per year.  So after 10 years maybe we’d have a dividend of 4.55 after tax, and maybe we’d be looking at a book of like 35.64.  And maybe EPS of like 3.564 if we went with the current P/E of about 10 we’d be looking at a share price of about 35.64 maybe as high at 53.46 plus after tax dividends of 4.55.  With current p/e and price, we’d be looking at a rate of 9.09.  With the higher p/e we’d be looking at a 12.31 rate of return.  Problem with this bank is that it’s not protected by a brand name or a moat.  I’ll put 10 as a price point, but I’d really need to get lower than that for safety.

MA-MASTERCARD INCORPORATED-selling at 88.71, well above their 74.61 52 week low.  They’ve gained 7.86% on the year.  P/E is at 27.3. Short interest doesn’t exist  Dividend is at .86%.  Analysts are neutral.  Cap is at 99.6b.  Book per share is at 5.57 per share.  Book growth over last 5 is at 14.15.  Future earnings are expected to grow at 16.26%.  Return on equity is at 57.74.  Debt to equity is at 23.86.  Earnings growth is good lately, but they’ve been a bit down since some funny business in 2010-2011.  Return on equity is always historically very high.  They, of course, don’t need all that capital to build facilities or whatever…it’s all salaries and profit.  I can’t really justify purchasing these guys unless they come way down.  I’d buy em at 45.  And there is a speculative element there.  Upon review, EPS is about 3.25.  Dividend is at about .76c, about 23% of earnings.  So after 10 years, maybe I could expect 5.95 in after tax dividends.  Plus, book value of maybe 35 per share…conservatively calculated.  Going with a conservative p/e of 15, they could be worth 131.25 per share plus that  5.95….we’re looking at 4.44% growth.  If we went with the crazy high P/E of 27.3, we’re looking at 162.43 per share, plus that 5.95 for a return of 6.59.  Now to be fair here, I did use a more conservative average of about 25 ongoing return on equity.  I agree with my price point of 45…even that is pretty high.  This company could face headwinds when other means of processing payment come around.

MS-MORGAN STANLEY-selling at 25.97.  They are near their 52 week low.  They have a P/E of 16.23.  They have a 2.31% dividend.  There’s a .59% short interest.  And they have a cap of 50.28b.  Analysts are very negative.  Book per share is at 38.85.  Earnings growth this past year sucked…negative 36.25.  Forward they are looking at 15.66 per year. Book value growth per share is at 11.83%.  Return on equity is at 4.78.  Long term debt to equity is at 199%.  Earnings are pretty shitty.   Historical return on equity is sorta shitty and spotty.  I’d give them an average of 5…and that’s generous.  I think they are overpriced.  I’d pay 15.64 on the low side.  Splitting the difference between historical return on growth and return on equity of this year…so 9, I’d buy em at about 19.  EPS is at about 1.6.  And they pay a dividend of about .6 per year about 37.5%.  Maybe we’d be looking at an after tax dividend of 12.84.  Book could very well grow to 53.91, and with a return on equity of 5 we could be looking at a share price of 40.43 plus after tax dividends of 12.84, we’re looking at a 5.29% growth rate.  Lame.  I’d pay 11, this is a downward revision.  Never know they could actually start generating returns…but who knows.

GS-GOLDMAN SACHS-selling at 155.61.  They are pretty much at their 52 week low.  Cap is at 66%.  Short interest is at 1.31.  Dividend is at 1.67.  P/E is at 10.24.  Dividend is at 1.67%.  Analysts are neutral/negative.  Book is at 196/share.  Earnings growth are terrible over last few years.  But things are looking ok this year, and in the next 3-5 with 24% and 6% respectively.  Book growth per share is about 2.91.  Return on equity is 9.29.  Debt to equity is 237%.   Looks like they are getting back to ok on the earnings but they are spotty.  Historical return on equity is pretty high.  Assuming 5% growth, I can justify purchsing them at about 80.  I don’t know about these guys.  EPS is pretty much 15.19.  Dividend is 2.6, about 17%.  So after tax dividends in 10 are like 22.18.   Book could very well be in the 423 range…conservatively.  So we’re looking at EPS of 42.3, and with a p/e of 10: we’re looking at a share price of 423 plus after tax dividends of 22.18.  We’re looking at a halfway decent growth rate here of 11.08.  If I could get em at 110, I’d have a great rate of return at present p/e levels.  If p/e went up to 15, they are a buy right now.  They have a nasty debt level.   I’ll revise them upwards to 145, with additional price points of 135,125, and 115.

LUK-LEUCADIA NATIONAL CORP-Selling at 15.74/share.  They are near their 52 week low of 15.2.  They have a 2% short interst.  They also have a 1.59 dividend.  Analysts are very bullish.  Cap is at 5.7.  Book is 28.96 per share.  Earnings have been down lately.  Earnings this coming year are looking to be like 48% higher.  Book value growth is at 18% per year.  Return on equity is at 2%.  They have 75% debt to equity.  Their earnings have been sorta spotty, but why?  Historical return on equity was good, but is now sucking big time.  Weird.  P/E is at 28.62.  If they come down to 12.  Read a bunch of blogs on seeking alpha…it’s a value play.  Upon review, allowing their book price to stay there, but keeping their return on equity at 5, EPS is like .55.  They pay a dividedd of like .24 per share.  After tax dividends might be in the 2.10 range after taxes.  Book could very well be in the 42.87 range.  I could see their earnings being in the 1.53 range, and at current inflated p/e levels that would put their price at 43.81 plus that 2.1.  I think a more reasonable p.e is 15, and that would put their price at an uninspiring 22.95 plus that 2.1.  Wow people really are buying this stock on the hope of future earnings, which is pretty reasonable.   With the high p/e we’re looking at a return of 11.32.  On the low end, we’re looking at 5% growth.  I’ll keep the price point of 12.

BAC-BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION-Selling at 14.46, they are pretty much at their 52 week low.  Short interst is at .68%.  Cap is at 150.56b.  Dividend yield is at 1.38%.  P/E is at 10.79.  Analysts are very neutral. Book is 24.54 per share.  Earnings growth next 3-5 is 9.  This year 13.5.  This finally got going for bank of america this past year after the recession.  Return on equity is at 6.  Debt to equity is at 101.  Earnings are looking ok now after being in hell for a long time.  I could call return on equity an average of 5.  I’d buy them at 10.86, using a 6 percent growth figure on my book value.  Upon review, earnings are at 1.34 per share.  Dividend is at like .2 per share.  After tax dividends are at like 1.75.  Book may very well be in the 40 per share range…conservatively.  So earnings could very well be in the 2.4 range.  That would put our price at 24 on the low range and 36 on the high end of valuations…conservatively speaking.  That would put our growth rate at 6% on the low end and 9.55 on the high end.  I’ll leave that 10.86 price point, but I think they would be a safer buy at 9.  Conservative but safe.

Nice leisurely Saturday.  Barron’s gave me a few ideas and so did WSJ…these are not those ideas.  Although one resounding perspective is that equity investors still don’t have a lot to be happy about…even with the market downturn.  The prices need to come down, but then again I am looking at big cappers.  I’d need to look at small caps to find my values…and the small cap sector is definitely in bear market territory.

CAT-CATERPILLAR INC-My wife and I drove past their peoria headquarters last week.  Pretty rustbelty.  Selling at 59.87 they are at their 52 week low.  They are a cyclical stock.  There is an 8% short interest.  Cap is at 34.86b.  Dividend yield is a wild 5.14%.  This is an old man’s stock, and they are built to pay out their earnings. Analysts are neutral.  They have 27.3 in book per share.  Earnings growth the past 5 years are at +32, but forward they are looking at negligible growth.  Book has been growing over the past five years at 13.89%.  Debt to equity is at 158.58%.  Return on equity is at like 17.67.  I just don’t see these people growing steadily.  We have the 5% dividend which is pretty good, but I see the stock/book as a laggard.  Return on equity is always high.  Compounded earnings growth is negative.  Their price is propped up by that dividend.  I’d buy cat at 32-35.

T-AT&T-Selling at 33.99.  Analysts are neutral.  Their p/e is at 36.16.  Book per share is at 19.8.  Earnings growth is expected to be a modest 6.  And their earnings have been suffering over the last 5 years.  Return on equity is at 5.62.  They have 98% debt to equity.  Earnings growth sucks.  Return on equity is historically like 15%. I could see paying like 19.7, but they pay that 5.65 dividend.  Props up their price.

GE-GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY sells at 28.49 with their 52 week low at 19.37.  They are up 20.82 on the year.  Short interest is at 1.28.  Dividend is at 3.23.  P/E is at 91.9.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 11 per share.  Projected earnings growth is at 7.3% moving forward.  Book growth is at 1.79 going forward.  Return on equity is at 2.8.  Debt is at 218%.  Earnings growth is non-existent.  Historical return on equity is at like 12.  it seems like the market is poised to grab a future earnings growth or something…that and the dividend.  I’d pay like 11 per share.

LNVGY-LENOVO GROUP LTD-sells at 16.09, near the 52 week low of 15. Dividend is at 4.25.  Cap is at 8.9b.  Analysts are mixed.  P/E is at 10.82.  Return on equity is at 23%.  Eh whatever I can’t find good info on this company.

JCP-JCPENNEY COMPANY INC-Selling at 7.01.  They are above their 6.5 52 week low.  Price is down 9.2% for the year.  Cap is at 2.15b.  Short interest is at 34%.  No dividend, no positive earnings.  Analysts are big time bearish.  Book per share is at 5.06.  Earnings are projected to be great this coming year.  But they are using up their book value to keep in business I think.  Return on equity is negative.  Long term debt to equity is at 333%.  Earnings are way negative over the past 10 years.  Looks like this company paid a dividend until 2012. Company is going down into the ground.  Maybe after bankruptcy we’ll consider buying.

DE-DEERE AND CO-selling at 73.12, near the 52 week low.  P/E is at 12.69.  Dividend is at 3.28.  Cap is 23.12b.  Short interest is at 12.93.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is 21.29 per share.  Projected earnings are negative for next 5years.  Book growth is at 1.4%.  Return on equity is at 25.12.  Debt to equity is at 353.42.  Geez.  Earnings growth is at like 6.81 compounded annually.  I don’t know why buffett bought em.  He must’ve got some kind of special deal or maybe he wanted to help em out or something.  Just doesn’t make sense.  I’d buy em at like 15.

SHLD-SEARS HOLDINGS CORPORATION-Selling at 17.14, near their 16.88 low.  The stock is down 49.5% on the year.  Short interest is at like 12%.  Cap is at like 1.83b.  Analysts are unbelievably bearish.  They have negative book per share?  Forward earnings are negative.  Return on equity is at like 65…but they have only like $5…the rest is loans.  Earnings are dirt.  This company could be bought after a bankruptcy maybe.

 

PEP-PEPSICO INC-Selling at 93.93.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is 139.58 b.  Book is 9.21 per share.  Long term earnings growth is at 6.23  Book per share growth is at .57% forward.  Return on equity is like 32, but they have like 196% debt. These guys leveraged themselves to compete with coke.  I’d buy them at 20.  They have a 2.93% dividend.  There is just no expectation that they are gonna grow, grow.  Maybe the’ll just grow.  I’ll set an alert for 50.  UPON REVIEW, they pay 2.8 in dividend per year.  EPS is at 3.37?  Wow.  I have dividends at 25.68 after 10 and tax.  Dividends are currently taking up 83% of earnings.  So let’s say Return on Equity really is 30, only 5% of earnings actually is reinvested.  So taking 9.21 book, we have a future book of 15.  And with a 30% return on equity, we have EPS of 4.5 and thus a price of 125.41 plus the 25.68.  Thus we have a boring rate of return at 4.93.  I would need a $37 price to get my return.

KNX-KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION INC-Selling for 21.92. There is a 10% short interest.  P/E is at 14.9.  Dividend is 1.1%.  Analysts are neutral.  Cap is 1.76b.  Book per share is at 8.81.  Earnings per share growth next 3-5 is at 12.  Book growth over last 5 years is 11.  Return on equity is 17.  Minimal debt at 16%. Growth rate is at 5.59%.  I’d buy em for 10.  EPS is at 1.46.  Dividend is at .24, after taxes and 10, 2.10.  Book in 10 could easily be 29.91 (assuming robots are not driving trucks).  And so, we could see EPS of 4.5 (conservative).  And thus a share price of 58 with a p/e of 13, plus the dividend of 2.10.  Return would be about 10.59%.  So if we drop the price down to 15, we are really getting in range.  That’s my price.

M-MACYS INC-Dividend is 3.83.  P/E is at 9.85.  Short interest is at 3.79.  Analysts are low neutral.  Cap is at 11.83b.  Book is 12.63.  Projected growth is at 2.51, similar figure to growth in book. return on equity is 27.24.  Long term debt is at 148%.  Word on the street is that these people have property sitting on the books at low valuations.  I can’t justify more than 20 per share.  Their earnings are hard to evaluate.  Maybe 2%.  EPS is 3.81 and 1.44 goes out in dividends.  Let’s say dividends in 10 years, assuming they aren’t suspended are at 12.84.  Let’s say book is at 15.4 in 10 years (doubtful), they may have earnings of 3per share.  If they are lucky they will stagnate for the next 10 years.

DFS-DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES is selling at a price of 49.16 pretty much their 52 week low.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is 21.44b.  Book per share is 26.32.  Eps long term is 8.64 percent.  this past year it was down 7%.  Book growth is at 10.37%.  Return on equity is 20.29.  Debt to equity is at 221.54.  Compound earnings growth is at 10.  Historical return on equity is at like 20.  They pay a 2.23 dividend.  I’d buy em at 27.  Alert at 32.  P/E is at 10.  Dividend is at like 1.12 per share.  EPS is at like 4.85.  Dividend is like 23% of earnings.  After tax dividends might look like 10.5 at the end of 10 years.  Book may very well be in the 90 range conservatively speaking.  EPS in the 18 per share range.  So we’re looking at a price of something like 180 plus 10.5 with the dividend.  So with the current p/e and viewing things pretty conservatively, we’d be looking at a 14.48 growth rate.  I think these guys deserve to be adjusted upwards.  I’ll adjust the price point to 45.

SQ-SQUARE INC-Selling at 10.27 per share.  3.37 cap.  Book per share is .72.  Projected earnings are good.  Return on equity is at 77.  I can’t evaluate this company.

FB-FACEBOOK-Cap is 278.19.  Book is at 14.66.  Shares selling at 94.97.  Earnings growth expected in the 30 range.   Book growth is 87%.  No debt.  Return on equity is at 7.32.  Earnings growth is consistent.  Analysts are bullish.  I think they are buyable at 40.  P/E is at 94.97.  They are a growth stock.  I could see their earnings really growing but their quality of product going down.  It used to be cool, now it’s just a bunch of moms and judgy psychopaths with pictures of their crazy kids and their posing etc.  I’ll put an alert out for 50.  EPS is at like .98, we’ll call it 1.  Pretty standard for the crazy multiples that growth/tech companies sell at.  Return on equity is at like 10%…I can see this going up.  So we can see book in  the 38 rage.  And with return on equity at 10, we’ll be looking at 3.8 per share.  And with these stooopid p/es we’d be looking at a price of 380.  Which is insane and a 14.87% growth rate.  Using a possibility of a 50% p/e, we’d be looking at a price of 190 for a rate of return of 7.18.  The risk here is: will facebook be around in 10 years?  Who can predict that.  I agree with my 50 price point.

 

RACE-FERRARI NV-Ferrari just spun off from Chrysler in an IPO.  It’s trading at its lowest point ever.  Analysts are not out on this one yet.   No figures as to market cap and earnings yet.  Can’t make a business decision on this one.

TM-TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION-Selling at 112, not much above their 52 week low. 173b cap.  P/E is 9.99.  No shorts.  3.13% dividend.  Analysts are neutral/bearish.Book is 93.91  Earnings projections are not available.  Return on equity is 13%.  Book growth is at 4.76.  Debt is at 59% of equity.  Return on investment is at 5%.  Their growth of earnings rate is not gonna be great.  Like 3.3%.  I think this stock is clearly overvalued.  I could justify buying at 78.6.  Great product.  Too expensive.

VLKPF-VOLKSWAGEN-selling at 26.425.     Cap is 41.02b.    P/e is at 6.16.  Dividend is at 3.91.  Analysts are bearish.  I think their company should be stomped out of history given their environmental and governance contributions.  Book is 64.99 per share.  Earnings projections are in the dirt.  Long term they are in the dirt earnings wise.  They have about 30 something in debt to equity.  It’s a cynical contrarian play.  They probably will bounce up.  All the big funds dumped em cuz of the pr heat.  They should donate all corporate earnings to their innocent employees and then flush themselves down the drain.  They also have to look forward to years of penalties.  To keep track I put an alert down for 15.

F-FORD-Trading at 11.97.  Their 52week low is 11.44.  Cap is 47.5  Dividend is 4.92.  Analysts are very bullish.  P/E is 9.46.  Book is 6.92 per share.  Earnins growth this past year were not so great.  Forward is looking to be 20%.  Book growth is not available.  Debt to equity is at 316%.  Return on equity is at 18.43…even with all that leverage?  I think these guys are suffering from years of good old boy management.  Their earnings are pretty ok, but I don’t think they are a reasonable candidate for a value investor.  They might be good for a speculative pop.  I might buy em at 2.79.

GM-GENERAL MOTORS-P/E is at 11.1.  Cap is at 46.02b..  Dividend yield is 4.75%.  Analysts love em.  Book is 21.65 per share.  Earnings growth next year..unkonwn.  Book value is growing at 10%.  REturn on equity 12.  DEbt to equity is at 102%.  Spotty earnings.  Can’t really be summarized well.   I could see buying at 15….and they are selling at 29.57.

FCAU-FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV-They are at their 52 week low.  Cap is 9.43b.  There is a 6% short interest.  Analysts are neutral/bearish.  P/E is 16.37.  Book value is unkonwn, but price to book is .6 so they should have about 12.2 in book.  Earnings growth is unkonwn.  Book per share growth is at 2.  Return on equity is at like 3.6%Their debt levels are unknown.  They have inconsistent earnings with a spotty growth rate.  Price is at 7.34.  I could see buying at 3.21.  or maybe 4..if i researched their debt and earnings more seriously.

TSLA-TESLA MOTORS INC-Cap is 26.84b.  Short interest is 21%.  They are $20 above their 52 week low.  Analysts are impossibly bearish.  They have no earnings and they have a 27.91 price to book.  They ar eburning through capital with the hope of huge earnings.  They have 150% debt to equity and -70 return on equity.  This business is a speculating man’s business.  Elon is cool though.  I’d buy at $15? In fairness I put an alert out for 100.