BCPC, AMGN

BCPC-BALCHEM CORPORATION-Selling at 56.14.  Earnings compounding at an awesome 15.34%.  Return on equity is historically between 18-20, been at about 15 for the past 3 years.  Book growing very steadily, compounding at 18.53%.  Short interest is at 3.73.  Cap is at 1.77b.  P/E is at 28.07.  Dividend is at .34 for a .61% yield, paid once a year.  EPS is at 2 so dividends are at like 17% of eps.  Analysts are pretty bearish, but most are neutral.  Book is at 14.52 per share.  Enterprise value is at 1.99.  Eps this year is at .82 and no estimate for next 3-5.  Book growth is at 21.64 over past 5 years.  Return on equity this year is at 14.86.  Debt is at 66.96.  This company is at the top of their industry in most statistics.  They are also “best” stock of the past 30 years.  Average p/e is at 32, and now they are trading at 28.  Industry average is at about 20, as low as 16, because the industry is a bit depressed right now.  So let’s say dividend is at $3 after tax and ten.    Let’s say they grow book at 14% annually, they could be looking at a book value of 53.83 and thus EPS of 9.6894, and thus EPS of 271.30 with a p/e of 28, and iwth a p/e of 16, as low as 154.88.  I suppose the risk is whether their earnings stay strong.  This is obviously great stock.  They are the leading supplier of packaged 100% ethylene oxide to the healthcare industry.  They package hazardous materials in environmentally safe containers via fleet trucks.  They also produce fumigants for insect control and food contamination.  Let’s go with the compounding earnings figure.  They pay 17% of EPS in dividends so, let’s compound book by 12…very conservative, and return on equity of 15, for EPS of 6.765, and with p/e of 20, we see a price of 135.3 on the very conservative side.  That’s a steady return of 10.39 with a price of 50.  We’ll I’ll watch for a while.  I’ll buy a bit at 55, and i’ll buy at 53, and I’ll buy at 51.  The stock market is weird though.  Everything fluctuates on these huge macro issues, and these tool bags who play the earnings calls, and these dirtbag inside traders.

AMGN-AMGEN INC-Selling at 152.73.  Cap is at 115.21b.  Book is at 37.25. EPS growth next 3-5 is at 9.53.  Book growth is at 3.24%.   Return on equity is at 25.22.  Debt to equity is at 109.38.  Earnings have compounded at 11.49. Return on equuity is awesome, even through the recession.  average is at about 20.  Book is growing at an awesome clip.  It was growing at about 8.45 compounded over 10. Analysts love it.  Short interest is at 1.2%.  EPS is at 9.026.  They recently raised their dividend to 1 per share…wow.  That’ll be about 30, at least, after 10 and tax.  they are mid way between 52 week low and high.  Let’s say they compound book at 8.45, we could see book of 83.83, and thus an EPS of a pretty conservative 16.76, and with a p/e of 16, we could see a price of 268 plus 30 in dividends.  It’s a pretty good stock, with great growth prospects, but I would see an entry point of about 120 more to my liking.

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