Deconstructing Markel’s Investments: WBA, BAM, DEO, MAR, UNH

WBA-WALGREEN BOOTS ALLIANCE INC-Sells at 80.84.  They are up from 73, the 52 week low.  Cap is 87.21b.  Short interest is 1.39.  P/E is at 17.38.  Dividend is at 1.44, tand10, 10368.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is 28.29. EPS next year, 11.63.  Next 3-5 is 14%.  Book growth last 5 is at 16.47.  Return on equity is at 14.46.   Debt to equity is at 49.19.  Earnings have their ups and downs but are clockworkish.  Compounded growth of earnings at 8.61.  Not bad. Return on equity is always at about 14…some highs some lows.  Second largest drug store.  Decided not to relocate after acquiring boots alliance, which would’ve saved them seriously in taxes.  Looks like they suspended share buybacks in order to buyout rite aid.  They have historically good performance through recessions.  I think a fair rate of book growth would be 10 given that’s the compounded growth they’ve had for the past 10.  Thus we could see book of 73.38 and with a return on equity of 14, we’d see EPS of 10.27, and with a p/e of 17 we could see a price of 174.644 plus 10.368…Hmm.  They’d have to come below 50 to give me my return, plus I could see their profits hurt by more ePharma sites and associated deliveries.

BAM-BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC-Sells at 28.88, near their 52 week low, down 16.71 on the year.  Dividend is at .48.  P/E is at 10.83.  Cap is at 28.53.  Short interest is at .44%.  Analysts are low neutral.  Book is at 24.92, p/e is at 1.34.  Historical p/e average is at 11.48.  Enterprise value is at 91.82b?  EPS this coming year is at -30.23.  EPS growth next 3-5 is unknown.  Book growth is at 25.77.  Return on equity is at 12.66.  Debt is at 246%…geez.  I don’t like the look of this company.  I think the debt makes it hard to invest.  Dividend with tax and 10 is about $3.6.  Question, how are they getting such a low return on equity with all that debt?  I won’t buy these guys.  I’ll put a price alert out for 20, and we’ll reassess at that point.

DEO-DIAGEO PLC-Sells at 106.51.  Their at a -8.81 performance on the year, trading near their 52 week low.  Cap is 67b.  Short interest is at .06.  P/E is non existent.  Dividend yield is at 4.26.  Analysts are VERY bearish. Book is at 19.51.  EPS this year is a ?.  EPS next 3-5 is at 4.5% growth.  Book is growing at 15.33.  Return on equity is a ?  Return on equity is actually not bad we’ll say 30% conservatively.  Book really has been growing nicely, but we’ll call it a 5.15% rate.  Debt is at like 1.2.  These guys make Guiness, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Johnnie Walker and Bailey’s.  People are concerned with problems with growth of these brands and with the strong dollar hurting their bottom line, because a majority of their revenue comes from the US.  These guys pay a huge dividend, but theres not gonna be a lot of growth.  I do see these brands as a problem. I’ll reassess if they come below 100.

MAR-MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC-Selling at 62.46.  Down 20% on the year.  P/E is at 20.41.  Short interest is at 10.29.  Cap is at 16.06b. Dividend is at 1, we’ll call that 7.5 with tax and 10. Favorable PEG.  Analysts are neutral.  Book is negative 13.  Growth this year is at 19.55.  Next 3-5 at 22.7. Book growth is negative.  Return on equtiy is at -23. Debt to equity is at-124.  The story on this corp is debt. Why do they have so much damn debt.  Not a contender for me.  I’ll set an alert if they go down to 50.

UNH-UNITEDHEALTH GROUP-Sells at 114.33.  Up from 52 week low of 95. Dividend is at 2, we’ll call that 1.5 with tax and 10.  P/E is at 19.02.  Short interest is at 1.  Cap is at 108.97b. Analysts are neutral.  Book is at 35.39.  P/E average is at 13.95.  Earnings growth this year is unknown.  Next 3-5 is at like 13.63.  Book is at like 6.57 growth.  Revenue is growing.  Return on equity is at like 17.65.  Debt to equity is at 62.  Earnings are good, but spottyish.  I don’t know about getting involved in a company that is so subject to political pressure and governmental oversight and regulation.  We’ll use 5% book growth, giving us a book price of 73.38.  And with a return on equity, I’d feel comfortable using a figure of like 15.  And so, we could see EPS of 11, and thus a price of 154 plus that dividend of 10.  That’s a crap growth rate.  All of this guy Gaynor’s stocks kinda suck.  Buffett is the man.

Leave a comment