BBRY-3.85b cap. 14.43 short interest. No earnings. Selling for 6.985. Analysts are bearish. Earnings paint a sad picture. They just lose money. Good until 2012, and from then on it’s just been downhill. Book is 6.57 per share. This year is gonna have les earnings per share. 3-5 years out is an expected 1%. Book value is shrinking at 14% per year. Return on equity is at 1.66. They have 38% debt to equity. They pay no dividend. Given their lack of earnings, and assuming they can earn 1% growth per year…I might be willing to buy for about 1.5.
VIA-VIACOM INC-Selling at 39.85. P/E is at 8.72 Dividend is at 3.86%. They are pretty much at their 52 week low. There is a 4.5% short interest. Analysts are neutral. Cap is at 13.83b. Book is 8.89 per share. Earnings growth this coming year should be about 15%. Book value growth is negative. Return on equity is a huge 63.7. Shit load of debt with 346% d/e. Earnings growth is compounded at about 11.38 per year. They are the sixth largest broadcasting company behind comcast, disney fox, time warner and cbs. They own Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon, Paramount, Spike, TVLand, BET, CMT, Logo, Palladia, VH1. Their programming is good, but a little on the offbeat side. I do want in on the programming/content side of things because I really see society valuing that even more, but this one seems expensive. Huge return on equity figures…due to that debt with an average of about 50. I think they are overvalued. Granted they don’t need machinery. I’d pay 20 for them. UPON REVIEW, return on equity is generally huge with these guys…cuz a that debt. Price to earnings is now at 8.39 after drops the last few days. EPS are at 4.57. and dividend is at 1.6 per year. So we’ll say after tax dividends are at 12.84. We can say book will be at 39.22. we could say EPS will be at 8.62 and with that low p/e valuation of 8.72, we’d be looking at a share price of maybe 75.23 plus that dividend of 12.84. So we’ll call it a conservative 87. We’d be looking at a conservative 8.12% rate of return. I’ll revise my price to 24.
JWN-NORDSTROM INC- Selling at 45.45 they are at a 52 week low. These retailers are having a tough time. Market cap is 8.42b. There is a 15% short interest. P/E is at 13.12. They pay a 3% dividend. Analysts are bearish. Earnings are sad and spotty and down trending at a compounded rate of 3.2 growth…downward in the last 5 years. Return on equity is consistently more than 20…tells me their debt is big. Book per share is 7.59. Earnings growth this year is 6, forward 4.84. Book value growth last 5 is 9% per year. Debt to equity is 198.86. This isn’t a pretty picture for such a nice company…this is where I like to buy my suits. With these earnings, I wouldn’t pay more than 10. I think all the suit wearing brokers must be sentimental about this one. They are overweight.
NFLX-NETFLIX INC is selling at 104.04. The stock has gone up 131% this past year. Thye have great programming, and its easy to use and a great product. There is an 11% short interest. They have a cap of 45.76b. P/E of 283.83! Analysts are bearish for good reason. I think they look overbought and shortable…but then the whole world is crazy. They have 5.07 in book per share. EPS this past year v. the year before is -29%. In the next 3-5 its expected to be at 24.5 Book value is expected to grow at 50%. Return on equity is 8%. Debt to equity is 110%. Their earnings are downward trending? I guess people expect things to pick up. This is a crazy stock. People are just riding the wave of crazy here. I would buy em at 10…haha. UPON REVIEW, they have EPS of .367. Their return on equity is 8%, but their book is expected to sky rocket. Historirn on equity is probably in the 15% range….that’s the figure I’ll use here. Book could easily be 20.51 in 10 years. EPS in 10 years would be 4.102. And so with a P/E of 50, that would put their price at 206…a return of 7.07, and if we use the speculative multiple of 283!, we’d have a value of 1,160…a return of 27%…right! I’ll adjust their price point to 50…call me crazy.
BBW-BUILD A BEAR WORKSHOP INC- is selling at 12.49 per share. Near their 52 week low of 10.74. There is an 8.33% short interest. They have a P/E of 11.65. No dividend. Analysts are bullish. They have 5.59 in book per share. Growth this past year was great. This year is unknown or negligible. 3-5 is expected to be 30+ per year. Book growth is at -9. Return on equity is at 20 this syear. They have no debt. Earnings are shit and/or negative, but sometimes they post a good quarter. I’d buy them for 1.38. I don’t see how this company is gonna catch on. It’ s a cheesy idea. UPON REVIEW, people with kids seem to like this place. Their stores always seemed kinda run down. I could just see this place going out of business for some reason. That being said, there is a margin of safety here. Cap is at 204m. They have up years and down years as to return on equity. I would feel ok giving them an average of 10, so lets say book is 14.50 in 10. Let’s say their earnings per share are 1.45 in 10 years. they might very well be selling at 14.50 in 10 years…ya. And they are a scary company. I’ll revise their price to 3.58. Huge risk of catastrophic loss in my opinion.
BWLD-BUFFALO WILD WINGS INC- is selling at 147.51, a 52 week low. Analysts are dour. There is a 14% short interest, a 32 p/e. No dividend. Cap is at 2.81b. Book is 34.39 per share. EPS last 5 is 23.98. This past year there was a -5 earnings growth? Why? Forward 3-5 is expected to be 17.82. Book value per share growth last 5 is 22%. Their margins are kinda slim. Maybe their model is getting old. Return on equity is at 15%. They have 11% debt to equity. I love their wings. Their growth is compounding at 20.89 for their shares. But there was a big dip recently. Why? Looks like they spent money buying back franchised locations. It looks like there are 1111 stores, but I think they can grow. I think their rate of growth is sustainableish…but they need more stores, and they need international stores to be a hit…right now there are only 13 in mexico and arab countries. They are simply priced to high for their growth. I could see paying like 50 per share. UPON REVIEW, they have EPS of 4.61. No dividend. They grow their book at 15. They could have book of 139.13. And so their earnings in 10 years could be 27.82. Ad with those crazy p/es they could be worth 556 with a p/e of 20. That would be nearly 14.2%. If they come down to 137, I’ll buy.
CHE-CHEMED CORPORATION-I wish I could buy it at a good price. They are up 35% off their 52 week low. They sell for 139.9. There is a 13% short interest. 22 P/E. They pay a .69% dividend. Analysts are in love. I kinda love the stock. They have 2 segments…rotorooter! and hospice care. Cap is at 2.36b. Book is 29.12 per share. Earnings growth next 3-5 is at 10%. Book is shrinking. Return on equity is 23.26. They have 30.55 debt to equity. They have clockwork earnings compounding at 13.49 per year. I just cant justify buying for more than 55. Maybe 60. Wha-ma-doo. UPON REVIEW: EPS is at 6.31. Dividend is at about .96 per share. Dividends after tax would be approx. 8.17. Book value could easily come to like 134 (assuming 15% growth) and with that 20% return on equity, we’d be looking at EPS of 26.8 in 10 years. And with that high p/e we could be looking at a price of 536 with a 20p/e plus those 8.17 in dividend. We’re looking at a great growth rate. This is a great company. Let’s say we bring the p/e down to 15, share price would be402 with that dividend of 8, we’d be looking at a 11.35% growth rate. The company seems to be fairly priced from a conservative/risk averse standpoint. I think I can justify buying at 139. I think for safety’s sake I’ll set the alert for 135, 130, 125. Price is revised.
VRX-VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS INTERNATIONAL INC is a scandal plagued company selling for 88.7 per share. P/E is at 51.01. There is a 3.5% short interest. Cap is at 30.26b. They are up from 69 the 52 week low. The performance over the last 52 weeks is 42.75. Analysts are bearish. Book is 18.49 per share. Book is growing big time. Earnings projections are projected for 30+% this coming year. Next 3-5 is projected at 18.55. Return on equity is at 9.86. Debt to equity is at 475%. This is a crazy company. Munger hates em. He says their debt fueled acquisition of drug patents and price gouging is unsustainable and unethical. I would buy em at 5. UPON REVIEW, considering the contrarian play, let’s say EPS is 1.73. No dividend. Let’s keep return on equity at 10%. Book would be worth 47.96. Let’s say EPS are 4.79. Let’s say the P/E is at 30, price would be worth 143. I’ll revise my price point at 35.