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PEP-PEPSICO INC-Selling at 93.93.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is 139.58 b.  Book is 9.21 per share.  Long term earnings growth is at 6.23  Book per share growth is at .57% forward.  Return on equity is like 32, but they have like 196% debt. These guys leveraged themselves to compete with coke.  I’d buy them at 20.  They have a 2.93% dividend.  There is just no expectation that they are gonna grow, grow.  Maybe the’ll just grow.  I’ll set an alert for 50.  UPON REVIEW, they pay 2.8 in dividend per year.  EPS is at 3.37?  Wow.  I have dividends at 25.68 after 10 and tax.  Dividends are currently taking up 83% of earnings.  So let’s say Return on Equity really is 30, only 5% of earnings actually is reinvested.  So taking 9.21 book, we have a future book of 15.  And with a 30% return on equity, we have EPS of 4.5 and thus a price of 125.41 plus the 25.68.  Thus we have a boring rate of return at 4.93.  I would need a $37 price to get my return.

KNX-KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION INC-Selling for 21.92. There is a 10% short interest.  P/E is at 14.9.  Dividend is 1.1%.  Analysts are neutral.  Cap is 1.76b.  Book per share is at 8.81.  Earnings per share growth next 3-5 is at 12.  Book growth over last 5 years is 11.  Return on equity is 17.  Minimal debt at 16%. Growth rate is at 5.59%.  I’d buy em for 10.  EPS is at 1.46.  Dividend is at .24, after taxes and 10, 2.10.  Book in 10 could easily be 29.91 (assuming robots are not driving trucks).  And so, we could see EPS of 4.5 (conservative).  And thus a share price of 58 with a p/e of 13, plus the dividend of 2.10.  Return would be about 10.59%.  So if we drop the price down to 15, we are really getting in range.  That’s my price.

M-MACYS INC-Dividend is 3.83.  P/E is at 9.85.  Short interest is at 3.79.  Analysts are low neutral.  Cap is at 11.83b.  Book is 12.63.  Projected growth is at 2.51, similar figure to growth in book. return on equity is 27.24.  Long term debt is at 148%.  Word on the street is that these people have property sitting on the books at low valuations.  I can’t justify more than 20 per share.  Their earnings are hard to evaluate.  Maybe 2%.  EPS is 3.81 and 1.44 goes out in dividends.  Let’s say dividends in 10 years, assuming they aren’t suspended are at 12.84.  Let’s say book is at 15.4 in 10 years (doubtful), they may have earnings of 3per share.  If they are lucky they will stagnate for the next 10 years.

DFS-DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES is selling at a price of 49.16 pretty much their 52 week low.  Analysts are bullish.  Cap is 21.44b.  Book per share is 26.32.  Eps long term is 8.64 percent.  this past year it was down 7%.  Book growth is at 10.37%.  Return on equity is 20.29.  Debt to equity is at 221.54.  Compound earnings growth is at 10.  Historical return on equity is at like 20.  They pay a 2.23 dividend.  I’d buy em at 27.  Alert at 32.  P/E is at 10.  Dividend is at like 1.12 per share.  EPS is at like 4.85.  Dividend is like 23% of earnings.  After tax dividends might look like 10.5 at the end of 10 years.  Book may very well be in the 90 range conservatively speaking.  EPS in the 18 per share range.  So we’re looking at a price of something like 180 plus 10.5 with the dividend.  So with the current p/e and viewing things pretty conservatively, we’d be looking at a 14.48 growth rate.  I think these guys deserve to be adjusted upwards.  I’ll adjust the price point to 45.

SQ-SQUARE INC-Selling at 10.27 per share.  3.37 cap.  Book per share is .72.  Projected earnings are good.  Return on equity is at 77.  I can’t evaluate this company.

FB-FACEBOOK-Cap is 278.19.  Book is at 14.66.  Shares selling at 94.97.  Earnings growth expected in the 30 range.   Book growth is 87%.  No debt.  Return on equity is at 7.32.  Earnings growth is consistent.  Analysts are bullish.  I think they are buyable at 40.  P/E is at 94.97.  They are a growth stock.  I could see their earnings really growing but their quality of product going down.  It used to be cool, now it’s just a bunch of moms and judgy psychopaths with pictures of their crazy kids and their posing etc.  I’ll put an alert out for 50.  EPS is at like .98, we’ll call it 1.  Pretty standard for the crazy multiples that growth/tech companies sell at.  Return on equity is at like 10%…I can see this going up.  So we can see book in  the 38 rage.  And with return on equity at 10, we’ll be looking at 3.8 per share.  And with these stooopid p/es we’d be looking at a price of 380.  Which is insane and a 14.87% growth rate.  Using a possibility of a 50% p/e, we’d be looking at a price of 190 for a rate of return of 7.18.  The risk here is: will facebook be around in 10 years?  Who can predict that.  I agree with my 50 price point.

 

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