The stock market shot right up today…so none of my price alerts were activated.  JPMorgan announced great earnings, and Williams Companies went up by ~30%.  We are certainly dealing with a volatile market, and I’m waiting for my discounts.

MEG–MEDIA GENERAL, INC. operates tv stations in the US through digital and broadcast segments…They operate 71 stations.  Analysts hate it.  They have 11.08 in book per share.  They seem to be losing equity and not earning.  They also have 158% debt to equity.  This company doesn’t have the consistent earnings and predictable earnings.  Have to pass.

PSX-PHILLIPS 66  is a favorite of Buffett’s.  The are trading at 79.28 per share.  Analysts love it.  Buffett says he likes the management more than the business.  P/E is 8.77.  Book per share is 43.48.  Book value growth per share for the last 5 years is negative.  Earnings growth of 7% is expected in the next 3-5, but down this coming year.  This company could be a good contrarian position given the oil price issue.  They have .38 debt to equity.  They have a return on equity of 21.25.  They are a commodity business that is well run.  They have spotty earnings…to a degree due to the oil issues.  Their historical return on equity could be approximated at 19.  I’d buy them at 61.05, maybe 65.  I’ll put an alert out there for 65. UPON FURTHER REVIEW, they are trading for 78.47. P/E is 9.15.  Dividend is 2.24.  EPS is 8.575.  After 10 and tax, we’re looking at 20.43.    As far as growth on book, we’re looking at with what I would call 14% return on equity.  So we’d have 161.19 in book, an with a 10 for p/e, EPS of 22.56 would give us a share price of 225.66 plus 20.43 in dividends.  We’re looking at a 12.11 rate of return at present levels.  I pretty much stick to my guns on the 61.05 and the 65.

MDLZ–MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC….we have snack foods and beverages here.  They probably would be wise to spin off some of their subsidiaries…or to do something.  Analysts are dour.  They are selling at 41.36.  Their book price is 18.77 per share.  Book value growth is a negligible 1.4%.  Long term earnings growth are at about 9.52.  Return on equity is an unreasonable 31.82 this past year.  Return on investmnet is 17.  They seem to be well run given their limitations and size. They have 43% debt to equity.  Earnings are lagging.  Insignificant growth.  If I use 20 as a return on equity figure, I would say they’d be reasonably priced at about 28.67.  I’ll set an alert for 30.

ARII-The eponymous AMERICAN RAILCAR INDUSTRIES INC.   They sell at 40.40.  They are up 20 percent off their 52 week low.  Analysts are neutral, and they definitely have a commodity type business.  Icahn is an owner. P/E is 7.11.  Book per share is about 25.73.  Earnings per share are a rocky 13.84 for this year’s projection.  Growth for the next 3-5 is a guess.  Book value growth per share is abut 8%.  Their Return on equity this year is allegedly 23.  They have 113% debt to equity.  Their earnings are greatly impoved over the last five years compared to the previous.  Their annual compounded earnings growth rate is like 16%.  I think they would be a good buy at about 39 but better at 35.  That being said they are a commodity business.  UPON REVIEW, they are now trading for 40.88.  They have a 7.26 p/e.  Dividend is 1.6.  EPS are 5.63.  Dividend is 28% of earnings approx.  After 10 and tax, dividend is about 16.34.  With that return on equity of about a safe 12, that puts future book at 79.91 and thus EPS at 13.58 and thus, with a p/e of 8, a price of 108.67 plus those dividends, the return would be 11.83.  I’ll buy at a point of 31 or 32.

WDC-WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION-a commodity business.  Selling at 52 week lows, down from a high of 111.  Barrons mentions them as a company ready to rebound. Analysts love em.  They have a 11.58 cap.  Book value is 40.42. Earnings growth next year is supposed to be good.  Coming off of a bad year.  Earnings are projected to grow at 7 percent over next 3-5.  Book value growth per share over last 5 years is 14.38.  Return on equity is a reasonable 14.38.  They have 22% debt to equity. Rate of investment is 1%  Compounded earnings growth rate is 15.62%.  Return on equity is sometimes huge but sometimes in the 14ish range.  I think 17.5 should be the average.  I’d give em a price of 49.93.  I’d buy em at 47.  And that’s my price point.  UPON REASSESMENT: I bought 20 shares.  And now they are trading at 47.24.  They have a 2 dividend.  5.62 EPS.  P/E of 8.41.  Let’s say that rate of return, given dividend, is at .65×17.5, that gives us book of 121.67 and a return on that equity being EPS of 21.29 and thus a potential share price of 191.61 (with a 9 p/e) and plus the dividend,  17.51 after 10 and tax, and we are looking at a value of 209.12.  Bingo, we have an acceptable rate of return.  I’m gonna keep buying these shares

GOOG-ALPHABET INC-Selling at 714…near 52 week high.  Analysts are positive.  Cap is 246b.  P/E is 33.89.  Five year p/e average 28.2.  Book value per share is 169.03.  EPS growth past 5 years is 14.71.  Forward EPS is 3-5 years.  Book value per share growth past five years is 23.75.  I believe this is a great company, but I question sometimes unprofitable expenditures and development projects.  Return on equity is 13.8  They have no real debt.  They don’t pay a dividend.  Their compounded earnings growth rate is about 18.61. Sorta similar to their return on equity average historical figures.  I’d buy them at $450.  I doubled their book and used their earnings growth figure…and then was generous. UPON REVIEW, 694.45 is their current price.    P/E is 33.46.  I view them as far less speculative than facebook or amazon or Netflix, btw.  They pay no dividend.  Let’s call their return on book 16, that wold put their book at 745, and then with and EPS of 119, and with those crazy valuations of 33 p/e, the stock would be worth  3,927 or with a p/e of 15, that’s 1785.  On the low, conservative end, I’d have to agree with the 450 price point.  On the high end, we’d be looking at huge growth.  In actuality, could someone outdo google if we gave them 239b?  I’ll give them a bump.  I’ll buy at 600 and price points at 650 and 550.

FOX-TWENTY FIRST CENTURY FOX INC-They are 20% off their 52 week low.  They are selling for 26.77.  They had a 4% bounce today.  Analysts are neutral.  Earnings growth compounded rate is about 3.4? percent? P/E is 6.88.  Book per share is 7.73.  Earnings per share growth last five years was good.  Book value growth per share is negative.  Long term growth shows high hopes.  Return on equity is like 45% this year? 122% debt to equity.  Lately its been a great return on equity, but if you go back 5 years…not that great at 10,11,12.  I’ll call it 19%, and I’m sure this includes buybacks.  I’d buy em for 11.  UPON REVIEW, they are selling for 26.17.  P/e is at 6.94.  They have a dividend that pays .6 per year.  With ten and tax, dividend is at 5.25.  With a return of equity, that I’ll call 10, that puts their book at 20.05.  and thus EPS OF 2.4 and thus a share price of  20.40, given a p/e of 10, plus dividend of 5.25.  I’ll reiterate my 11 price point.

NSR-NEUSTAR-They got half of their earnings from one contract…and they lost the contract.  They are a short target because not enough people know or something.  Haha check out this article.  I think I could get a 50% gain cuz they are gonna TANK.