The dow is down 500 points today.  Everything is on sale!  But not these stocks.

DIS-WALT DISNEY CO-Selling at 93.99 today.  Analysts love it.  Kids love it. ESPN has been having trouble for whatever reason.  They have 26.19 in book, with price to book of 3.66 or so…looks like less than that. Book value per share growth last 5 years is 3.48…not so great.  Earnings growth next 3-5 is 12.63.  This coming year looks good.  They are so big though, that even star wars barely moves the needle.  I really think there are a lot of synergies in terms of what Disney does.  Kid’s are CRAZY about disney and their videos and products.  Adults are even into it.  Return on equity this year is 18.5  Return on investment is 12.77. 29% debt to equity.  One of the best brands in the world: #11.  Can they continue their growth?  Compounded earnings growth for the past 9 years is about 13.79%.  Historical return on equity is in the 16-17 range.  This stock is priced too high.  I’d buy them for like 50.  And that is being very generous.  If I paid 75, I’d be in the speculative range.  Note: back in 2013, I picked up 25 shares of disney at 48.98.  These appear to be fairly valued, we’ll see.  UPON REVIEW, they are now selling for 93.9.  EPS is 4.9.  Dividend is 2.84,  and that’s 58% of the earnings.  After 10 and tax, dividend would be something like 24.86.  With historical return on equity at 17 and only 42% of that going to book growth, we’re looking at book growth of 7.14, we could see book of 52.2, and thus EPS of maybe 8.87 and with a p/e of say 18.77, we’d see a price of maybe 166.56 plus that dividend of 24.86 for a value of 191.42….that’s a sad 7.38 in growth.  And thus if we could bring the price to 45 or 46 I’d be a strong buy.  5o works for me.

V-VISA INC  sells for 71.53.  Market cap is 179.3.  They are crushing amex right now and taking all their business.  P/E is 28.  Book value is 12.26 per share.  Projected earnings growth next 3-5 is 16%.  Next year is 16.32.  Return on equity is 22.  They have no debt?  That might not be accurate. Analysts are neutral.  Going back to 2006.  Earnings were compounded at a 26% rate?  What?  Lately return on equity in the low 20s but a fair average would be about 15%.  This stock is priced too high in my opinion even considering the lack of debt.  I’d but em for 40.  UPON REVIEW, they are selling for 71.83.  EPS is 2.57.  Dividend is .56.  With 10 and tax, that would be about 4.9.  That dividend is about 22% of earnings.  S0 we’ll say that the company reinvests 17% of earnings, and thus we’ll se book of 58.93 in 10 years, and thus EPS of 12.96 and with a historical p/e of 22, we’ll see a share price of 285.22, plus that 4.9, for a value of 290.12.  I think this stock looks good.   I want a discount.  I’ll buy at 70.

UPS-UNITED POSTAL SERVICE-Analysts are bearish.  They are selling at 89.4, near their 52 week low.  They have a 3.2% dividend and a P/E of 20.95.  They have a cap at 81b.  They have book of 2.16 per share.  WOW?  Earnings growth is projected at 10 for 3-5 out.  Book value growth lately is -22.44 percent.  Return on equity is 202%?  Kinda makes sense when they have 520.68% debt to equity!  Wow these guys must be building infrastructure and taking loans to buy stock.  Return on equity is historically huge like in the 50-100 range.  Earnings compound at 5.28.  This stock will grow, but I’d rather just get a job on the sorting line than buy their uber-leveraged business.  Using an insane equity return figure of 50%, it wouldn’t make sense to buy the business at anything more than 30.65.  That’s a lot of debt doood.  Maybe there is more here than I know, I know there is.  This stock just doesn’t make sense.  REVISITED:  They are now selling at 90.04, they’re sorta near their 52 week low.  P/E is now 20.70.  Dividend is 2.92.  EPS is 4.349.  Dividend is at 67% of the earnings, so with a return of equity like 50, we’ll say that 33% of that gets reinvested, we’ll have book of 9.95.  With tax and ten, we’ll have a dividend of about 25.21.  And so with a return on equity of 50!, we’ll have EPS of 4.9.  But then, to be fair, return on equity would be more fairly stated at 66, and that would give us book of 15.5, and thus EPS of 10.23…which seems reasonable.  And with a p/e multiple of 29 on average, we would see a share price of 296.67…WOW…on the low end, we could see a price of 204.6 if we used a 20p/e  So including the 25.21, we may very well see 229.81 on the low end, 321 on the high end.  That’s 9.82 on the low side and 13.56 on the high side.  They have a ton of leverage, but I’d buy them at 80 and down.

FDX-FEDEX CORP-selling for 127.04 after a 3.54% haircut today.  Analysts are milquetoast.  P/E of 33.86.  Small dividend at .76.  Book per share is 54.39.  Earnigns growth this past year was a -52.  Projected earnings growth is at 12.93.  Book value growth per share is at 1.6%.  Return on equity this past year is 7.29.  56% debt to equity…lots better than UPS.  Earnings growth is sorta unimpressive: 5.26 compounded over the last 9 years.  Return on equity is in the 17.% average range.  with some down years.  Looks like a good company, with pretty good growth.  This is a smart play when it comes to the future of consumer goods/transport, and I want  exposure to this area of growth.  I just think they are overpriced.  Too many people on this bandwagon.  I’d pay like 60-75.  UPON FURTHER REVIEW:  They are sellin at 126.92.  They are down 27% on the year, essentially at their 52 week low.  P/E is 32.63.  Dividend is 1.  EPS is 3.889.  Dividend is about 25% of earnings.  With ten and tax,  we’ll have about 8.75.  We’ll use 15% as a reasonable return on equity, and say 11.25% reinvestment…which is conservative.  We could see book of 157.95 and EPS of 23.69, and with those huge P?E figures, we could see 473.8 with a 20 p/e.  And thus we could see a 14.29 growth rate at current prices.  My price point 120 and under.