AAPL-APPLE INC-Selling for 97.13. Trouble on the horizon given that earnings can go nowhere but down.  Analysts are pretty bullish, but then all the mutual funds need to ride this train to get anywhere.  FANG anybody?  So, I don’t think it’s speculation to say that their earnings will likely taper…or fail to meet expectations.  And that’s gonna create instability.  Their cab is 551b.  Minimal short interest.  P/E is 10.8.  They are trading at $5 above the 52 week low.  They have 21.39 in book value per share.   They expect 9% earnings growth this year v. 43% year over previous year.  Long term growth of 13.92%.  Book value growth over last 5 is 20.09%.  Huge margins, huge returns on equity.  44% debt to equity.  Lots of cash stuck overseas.  The company is full of geniuses, and there doesn’t seem to be a proper competitor on the horizon, although android phones seem poised for more consistent growth.  16% compounded growth in earnings over 9 years.  Return on equity is like a huge 30% over the last 10 years.  Maybe more like 35.  Can they continue?  This company’s meteoric rise historical, but I think it would be speculative to anticipate their growth to continue uninterrupted.  So a price given these concerns?  Given their book value and a 20% conservative forward return on equity 32 is the price.  This company’s earnings are huge, but they are just plain old a growth stock.  I can’t rationalize buying them for more than 45.  UPON REVIEW: they are now trading at 97.13.  P/E is 10.56.  Dividend is at 2.08 per share.  EPS is at 9.197.  With 10 and tax dividend is at 17.97.  21.39 in book and huge and unsustainable growth, we’ll call their future return on equity, given that dividend, 15%, for book of 86.53.  With a 20% return on that, we’re looking at EPS of 17.3.  And thus, maybe, a price of 170  plus the 17.97.  I reiterate my 45-50 point.

WMT-WALMART STORES INC-Trading at 61.93 after a huge fall this year…down almost 30% because they announced they were gonna be buying back shares, focusing on getting online sales right, retaining more high income customers, and improving quality of in store appearance.  This past weekend, my wife and I had occasion to visit a Wal-Mart in Peoria, and the store was amazing.  Wal-Mart is an important part of this country.  People spend their hard earned money at Wal-Mart for things their families need.  And Wal-Mart does a better job than any other store.  We’ll see how online shopping effects sales in the years to come…so there’s some risk.  Earnings are at risk over the next couple of years as well, but then we’ll see them grow steadily…I hope.  Cap of 201.91b.  3% dividend.  P/E trailing 12 is 13.5…I could see this going up unless the stock falls.  Analysts are VERY BULLISH.   Book per share is 24.79.   Growh over last 5 years is 6%.  This past year was down 2.71.  Projected 3-5 growth is a negligible 1.2%.  Book value growth per share is 2.84%.  Margins are naturally sorta small cuz we’re dealing with a big box store here.  Return on equity is 19.07.  Debt to equity is 55%.  Compounded earnings growth is at like 5.2%.  Geez…this company is for old geezers.  Big dividend, not a lot of growth.  Return on equity is consistently pretty high.  I think I can justify a price point of like 16.  Ya.  I’m not gonna get a lot of growth out of this company.  UPON REVIEW, they have a p/e of 13.26, they have a dividend of 1.96.  With 10 and tax, 17.62 on the dividend.  EPS is at 4.67.  And thus the dividend is about 42 percent of earnings. We’ll say we can count on a 13% return on equity, we’d be looking at 84.15 for book, and thus a 15.98EPS and thus a share price of 207.74 conservatively, plus the 17.6.  We’re right about there with Wal-Mart.  We’re at 13.79, but if they drop to 55 we’re good.  I’m gonna set different price points at 61, 60, 59, 58, 57, 56, 55.  In fairness, we’ll likely get a bump short term.  And that’s with a conservative p/e.

COST-COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION is a great company…they just screwed AMEX in a big way though.  They are selling at 150.39.  Cap is 67b.  Dividend is 1%.  Analysts are bullish.  Book is 24.67 per share.  Book per share growth is negative over past 5 years.  Forward earnings are looking like 8%ish.  Return on equity is a nice 22.  Their margins are small.  I think the deal with these guys is they need more stores to get more earnings…cuz their margins are staying the same.  Earnings growth over past 9 years is like 9.22 compounded.  Historical return on equity is pretty good at about 19 average.  They have 44.66% return on equity.  I’d give them a price of about 20…this is another old man stock…it exists to pump out dividends…except they dont pay a dividend.  P/E is at 28.69.  I just think that they earn good money, but they don’t grow.  I think they are headed for a fall.  They are overweight.  I’d buy them for 70.  They are a big box growth stock.  UPON REVIEW, EPS is 5.34.  dividend is at 1.6, and with 10 and tax, that’s about 14.12.  Dividend is about 30% of earnings.  We’ll go with a conservative 13.3 for future return on equity, and with a book of 24.67, we’re looking at book of 85.99, and thus EPS OF 16.33, and we’ll go with a multiple of only 15 p/e, and we’ll be at a price of 245 plus the 14.12 for a value of 259.19…and thus I won’t buy em unless they come to that 70 price figure.

IBM-INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP  Trading at their 52 week low with a price of 130.03.  Analysts are bullish: because of Buffett?  Their cap is 128.94b.  P/E is 9.12.  Dividend is 3.91%.  They have engaged in serious buybacks, and they’ve taken on a bunch of debt to do it…taking advantage of the low fed rate I presume.  Compounded growth of earnings is 10.46.  They seriously manipulate their return on equity figures.  Theirs are usually about 75% average!  They have 13.7 in book per share.  Earnings this past year were down 8%.  Last five years were up 9% per year.  Book value per share growth is a negative 12%.  Their margins look healthy at 19.3.  They have a ton of debt at 241.63%.  Return on equity this year is at 90%!  It makes sense, they leveraged themselves to reduce outstanding shares by 50%.  So what’s the valuation?  Buffett sees growth that I don’t I guess.  They had to buy up those shares or their EPS would be terrible.  I don’t think they get me where I want to go.  I’d buy them for 50 per share.  UPON FURTHER REVIEW, they sell for 130.03; EPS 14.577; Dividend is a high 5.2, about 37% of their earnings this year.   So we’ll say their return on equity figures will be 30 moving forward, well compound things at 21: thus we’re talking book of 92.17.  And thus we’re talking eps of 27.6…which looks high, but Is actually lower than earnings growth over the past 9 years.  With 10 and tax that dividend is at 47.  Assuming an extremely low p/e of 10, the price would be 276 plus our 47 in dividends, and thus a value of 323.  That’s a nice dividend, but I think they are overvalued.  I’d pay 100.

MSFT-MICROSOFT CORPORATION-sells at 50.99.  Everyone’s going crazy with their cloud platform.  They have a 407b cap.  They have a 34.22 p/e.  Thy have a  1.44 dividend.  Analysts are low neutral.  Book is at 9.7 per share.  Forward growth is projected at 9.13.  This coming year has high expectations.  Book growth over the past 5 years is at 11.64.  Return on equity is at 14.46.  Debt is at 35.92.  EPS is at 1.49, and thus that dividend looks huge.   With 10 and tax, that dividend is at 13.42.  That book of 9.7 will grow to approx., 15.8.   Thus their EPS will be 2.37, and with a more reasonable p/e of 20, that puts that share price at 47.4 + that dividend.  This stock is over,over bought.  I’d pay 18.